SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 8:44:39 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
France's Raffarin Calls for ECB Cut to Stem Euro's Appreciation
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin joined German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in urging the European Central Bank to trim interest rates to stem the euro's rise against the dollar and protect Europe's economic recovery.

``I share Chancellor Schroeder's view on the reduction of interest rates,'' Raffarin told journalists in Paris. ``The euro- dollar exchange rate and the acceleration, extent and brutality of its movement isn't a good situation for the U.S. or for Europe.''

German business confidence unexpectedly fell for the first time in 10 months in February, hurt by the euro's 15 percent rise against the dollar over the past year. The euro's gains are curbing exports at companies including Volkswagen AG and L'Oreal SA.

The ECB has said it's concerned about ``excessive'' moves in the exchange rate. At the same time, the bank says the stronger euro will make imported goods such as oil cheaper, leaving consumers with more money to spend.

The euro fell after Raffarin's comments. The currency dropped to $1.2439 at 10:29 in Paris from $1.2501 yesterday.

The ECB in June lowered its benchmark lending rate to 2 percent, the lowest in any euro country since at least 1946. That's still twice the rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

``Global growth picked up,'' Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer, a member of the ECB's governing council, told French radio station RTL yesterday. ``We can positively see that it's helping us through our exports.''

The German and French leaders are concerned that slowing exports may crimp an economic recovery. Growth in the 12 nations sharing the euro slowed to 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 0.4 percent in the previous three months.

``The weakness of the dollar and the resulting euro strength is giving us export problems and the European Central Bank should give this its closest attention,'' Schroeder told German radio station NDR yesterday. ``There is reason to also think about consequences as far as interest rates are concerned.''

``Exchange rates don't conform with the economic reality, the French Prime Minister said today.

quote.bloomberg.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 8:49:29 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. durables orders plunge on transportation goods By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A big drop in orders for new airplanes and vehicles in January masked signs of stronger demand in the U.S. for core capital investment goods, according to Commerce Department estimates released Thursday. New orders for durable goods fell 1.8 percent in January, far short of the 1.5 percent gain expected by Wall Street economists. Excluding the 10.4 percent drop in transportation orders, durable orders were up 2 percent. December's durable orders were revised higher to show a 1.6 percent increase. Orders for core capital goods rose 3.6 percent in January after a 3.8 percent gain in December. Shipments of durable goods were flat. Inventories rose 0.1 percent. Unfilled orders fell 0.1 percent.

cbs.marketwatch.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 8:53:01 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Four-week average claims highest since December
By Maggie McNeil
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time rose 6,000 to 350,000 in the week ended Feb. 21, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average rose 2,750 to 354,750, the fourth consecutive increase in the more reliable measure of jobless claims and the highest level since December of last year.

cbs.marketwatch.com;



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 9:02:13 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
UK Consumer confidence falls

LONDON (Reuters) - Consumer confidence fell back more than expected in February, the month the Bank of England raised interest rates again, after having risen sharply the month before, a report shows.

Research company Martin Hamblin GfK said on Thursday its consumer confidence barometer fell to -2 this month from 0 in January -- its long-term average. Analysts had predicted a fall to -1.

The drop was driven primarily by a fall in the survey's major purchases measure following the second rate hike in three months and the fact that consumers are more inclined to consider saving money, GfK said.

The index measuring major purchase intention dropped sharply to +14 this month from +22 in January.

"Whilst we have not seen the same level of decline of the index we saw following November's interest rate rise, consumers are less favourable to now being a good time to make major purchases," said Roger Wright, director at Martin Hamblin GfK.

But he added: "However, the index is still considerably higher than this month last year when it stood at -9."

Consumers are less optimistic about their future financial situation, with the index measuring expectations falling back to +8 from +10 in January.

Expectations for the general economic situation in the next 12 months also declined, to -11 from -9 in the previous month.

reuters.co.uk



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 9:12:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
OZ - Retirement is a thing of the past, says Costello

There would no longer be any such thing as full-time retirement, Treasurer Peter Costello said today, adding that he had no plans to retire at 65.

Asked if he would like to see Prime Minister John Howard, now 64, stay in his job into his 70s, Mr Costello told ABC radio: "I'm encouraging people, whilst they have contributions to make, to continue to do it.

"And that applies to you, me, everybody ...

"But in politics, as you know, the voters decide that, at the end of the day.

"They decide whether or not to compulsorily retire you."

Mr Costello was speaking after yesterday outlining the government's vision to keep older people in the workforce longer and encourage lone parents and disabled people back into paid jobs.

Under the proposals, superannuation changes would give older people incentives to keep working, including allowing them to work part-time and top up wages through their super.

Mr Costello said today the attitude of employers was the biggest obstacle to part-time work for older people.

Older workers were skilled, disciplined and reliable, and their levels of sick leave declined as they aged.

The days of throwing them on the scrap heap at 40 or 50 were over, and employers had to be re-educated to this end, he said.

"There's going to be no such thing as full-time retirement," Mr Costello told ABC radio.

"There's going to be part-time retirement, and part-time work."

Mr Costello said he personally would continue to work after 65, currently considered the mandatory retirement age, and said early retirement led to the loss of a lot of interest in life, workmates and skills.

"I have no plans whatsoever to retire at 65," Mr Costello told Sydney radio 2GB.

"Everybody I know, and particularly those who have taken early retirement at 55, says after a while, 'Geez, I'm bored stupid, my health's declining, I don't have enough to do.

"... It's the same old story, you know you've got to fill in 12 hours a day, seven days a week, you got to do something."

Prime Minister John Howard said he expected attitudes towards retirement would change over the next 30 or 40 years.

"There's not going to be an immediate effect, but over time it will bring about a very significant cultural change," Mr Howard told Melbourne radio station 3AW.

"This is very much about the next three or four decades.

"In my experience a lot of people well into their 60s are making very useful contributions in all sorts of areas and they want to keep on working, and when they stop working their life and their psychology changes for the worse."

Mr Howard said he hoped the reforms to the superannuation laws would also change employers' attitudes towards older workers.

"I talk to a lot of employers in major banks and in major organisations who are now actively pursuing ... policies of not only retaining but recruiting mature age workers," he said.

"That is a lead that I hope other firms follow."

Mr Howard said Australia would not follow the lead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who has proposed a cut in the aged pension.

"I have to make the point, because we don't have a big budget deficit and because our fiscal position is very strong, we don't have to contemplate radical solutions such as that," Mr Howard said.

Can't govern by Google, says Costello

Mr Costello also accused Labor leader Mark Latham of making up policy from the internet and said: "You can't govern a nation by Google."

Mr Costello said Mr Latham had had a long honeymoon as Labor leader with the media, but the hard business of marriage would soon begin.

Mr Costello said Mr Latham would have to pick up on policy, an area in which he was weak.

"He's one of these people, I think he gets on the internet, he gets an idea and he says, 'listen to this'," Mr Costello told ABC radio.

"And then the next day he gets on the internet and he's got another idea, 'listen to this' ...

"After a while you say 'well hang on, what you said on Monday's quite different to what you said on Wednesday'.

"And if you ever got into government you'd have to make this all add up.

"And you can't govern a nation by Google."

smh.com.au



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 9:15:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Greenspan sounds alarm on U.S. mortgage giants
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac called too risky
New York Times
Posted: Feb. 24, 2004

Washington - Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned Tuesday that the nation's two big government-sponsored mortgage institutions pose a "systemic risk" that could cost taxpayers dearly in the future.

Greenspan said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which buy and repackage billions of dollars' worth of mortgages each year, have grown so rapidly and accumulated so much debt that they cannot adequately hedge against the risks of financial crises.

The Fed chairman said both companies, which hold about $2 trillion worth of obligations tied to home mortgages, have grown much faster than their competitors because investors think the federal government will bail them out in a crisis.

jsonline.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 9:16:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Greenspan's Black Magic
truthnews.net

Ron Paul, February 23, 2004

Debt is the fundamental problem the central planners at the Fed will not address. The total U.S. federal debt is more than $7 trillion, and government spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has never been higher except during World War II. Mr. Greenspan's attempts to stimulate economic growth by printing money become more and more tenuous: today the Fed must create nearly $7 of new debt in the form of new fiat currency to generate only $1 of new GDP. Twenty years ago the figure was less than $1.50. Clearly this is a race that has run its course.

As financial analyst Jay Taylor explains, the disturbing increase in the debt to GDP ratio illustrates that printing more money is the only solution federal policy makers know. Federal debt naturally grows faster than income-- while there are no limits to how fast the printing presses can run, there are natural limits to economic growth.



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 9:19:40 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
After Greenspan warning, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac heads assure senators collapse unlikely

By MARCY GORDON
The Associated Press
2/25/04 5:45 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The heads of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assured senators Wednesday that their collapse was unlikely, a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned they could pose a threat to the U.S. financial system if their ability to assume new debt isn't restrained.

Fannie Mae Chairman and CEO Franklin Raines and Richard Syron, who was tapped to lead Freddie Mac after it lost its two previous chief executives in an accounting scandal, faced questioning by the Senate Banking Committee after Greenspan's comments heightened the political pressure for an overhaul of the two government-sponsored companies.

Appearing before the same panel on Tuesday, Greenspan lent his influential voice to calls for restraints on the operations of the two.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become among the largest financial institutions in the United States and now stand behind $4 trillion of home mortgages -- more than three-fourths of the single-family mortgages in the country.

Raines characterized as an "unlikely event" a major financial disaster that would jeopardize Fannie Mae. "I don't view Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as being repositories of risk," he said.

Syron called the chance of Freddie Mac failing financially akin to that of "an asteroid hitting the United States."

Raines and Syron also defended as socially indispensable their role in promoting homeownership among minorities and lower-income people, a service they said would be reduced if new restraints were imposed on their operations.

Fannie Mae and smaller rival Freddie Mac were created by Congress to pump money into the home mortgage market by buying home loans from banks and other lenders and bundling them into securities for sale on Wall Street. Both are Fortune 500 companies whose stock is publicly traded.

Both have come under scrutiny since the accounting crisis at Freddie Mac became known last spring. The company acknowledged that it had understated earnings by $5 billion for 2000 through 2002 and later admitted inflating 2001 profits by nearly $1 billion.

The Bush administration has asked Congress for a firmer government hand over the companies and wants to shift their financial oversight from the Department of Housing and Urban Development to the Treasury Department.

Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., the committee's chairman, has said he will draft legislation that will go further, making the new regulator independent of either agency.

"This is not the time to begin dismantling the world's finest housing finance system or to place limits on its growth," testified Syron, a Wall Street veteran and former Federal Reserve official.

He said that some regulatory changes were needed "to get the ship back on course" but that policymakers should avoid "overreacting at the tiller."

Greenspan stressed on Tuesday that the companies' $4 trillion portfolio does not represent a risk currently to the financial system, but he warned that it could in the future if the explosive growth in debt is not restrained.

The Fed chief said the problem facing Congress was the fact that investors widely believe that if either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac got into financial trouble, the government would bail them out even though the bonds issued by the corporations explicitly state that they are not backed by the federal government.

The companies say their lower borrowing cost from the Treasury is passed on as a benefit to home buyers in the form of lower mortgage rates. But Greenspan cited a Fed study showing that that had lowered mortgage costs on average by a tiny 0.07 percent with most of the billions in savings going instead to the companies and their shareholders.

mlive.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (696)2/26/2004 9:21:33 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
More on Greenspan - posted by BCH on the FOOL
The Many Faces of Eve

###

globeandmail.com

Greenspan warns boomers over future
Perpetual deficits said likely if Congress doesn't rein in pension and health benefits

By BARRIE McKENNA
Thursday, February 26, 2004 - Page B8

Mr. Greenspan gave Mr. Bush and tax cut supporters a crucial endorsement by suggesting in 2001 that letting the then budget surplus grow too large might be damaging to the economy. He acknowledged yesterday that the tax cuts have helped swell the deficit. But members of the committee failed to pick up on the apparent inconsistency, and none asked about his earlier enthusiasm for tax.

And in his prepared testimony, Mr. Greenspan spoke of the damaging effect of accumulating too much debt, which he warned would "drain away funds from private capital formation" and curb rising living standards.
###

detnews.com
Thursday, February 26, 2004
Greenspan: Slash retiree benefits
Fed chief tells Congress to deal with deficit by reducing Social Security
###

aolsvc.news.aol.com

Updated: 01:42 AM EST
Greenspan Urges Social Security Cuts to Help Deficit
Baby Boom Generation Becomes Eligible for Benefits In Just Four Years
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP
###

baltimoresun.com

Social Security cuts will be necessary, Greenspan warns
Fed chairman urges step as way to avert effects of huge budget deficit; 'Challenge is enormous'

By Bill Atkinson and Eileen Ambrose
Sun Staff
Originally published February 26, 2004

President Bush, who was meeting yesterday in the White House with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, said in response to a reporter's question that Social Security benefits "should not be changed for people at or near retirement."
###

releases.usnewswire.com

Greenspan 'Rash and Wrong' on Social Security Deficit, Says Former House Aging Committee Staff Director
2/25/04 4:16:00 PM
####

onbusiness.ie

February 25, 2004

US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said today that the American economy is bolting forward in early 2004 but he pleaded for urgent action on a looming budget crisis.

###

freep.com

Greenspan: Cut Social Security to boomers
Fed chairman warns U.S. can't afford to keep current payouts
February 26, 2004

###

RUSH LIMBAUGH

rushlimbaugh.com

CNN Misreports Greenspan on Social Security Cuts
February 25, 2004

You can hear my answer to his question in the audio link below, where I focus on the way CNN spun this. They reported that Greenspan said: We Must Raise Taxes, or We'll Have to Cut Social Security. Greenspan isn't saying that. He's saying that Social Security benefits are going to have to be reduced for future recipients otherwise tax increases will be necessary to pay for them. Rush to earth! This is not anything new. For fifteen years we have been warning you here that there won't be enough taxpayers to pay future Social Security obligations.

We've all known this would be the case, which is why a number of reasonable people are talking about reforming the system. This is what Greenspan is warning of with this speech. It's a push for reform. He's not urging increasing taxes. That's what CNN wants to happen, and they want people to get frightened into thinking that Bush is going to cut their Social Security. Neither is the case -- despite what their banner, pictured above, seems to indicate to Seniors who happen to catch the video image only.

Listen to Rush...

: )

I guess the operative word in all this double talk is "reduce" social security as opposed to "cut" social security.

How he finds enough people to listen to him is beyond me!!!