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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (783)2/26/2004 7:17:03 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
The Real GDP
anyone buy this idea?
northerntrust.com

Mish



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (783)2/26/2004 7:29:39 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Gasoline prices
usatoday.com

Motorists face gasoline shortages as well as record prices the next few weeks because of the skintight U.S. refining and distribution network.

The vulnerability of that network, combined with low inventories of both gasoline and the crude oil from which it's made, have the government and energy experts increasingly nervous that some places in the USA will run out of gas temporarily. An accident that has disrupted shipping on the Mississippi River and in the Gulf of Mexico could trigger shortages this week.

"It looks like the big bulk terminals in Florida are going to run out in the next few days," Tom Kloza, analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, said Wednesday. Big gasoline suppliers were warning their customers of imminent Florida shortages and reduced allocations, he said. The Coast Guard said it had reopened some of the channel Wednesday, but a backlog of ships remained.

"The U.S. gasoline supply system is not 'just-in-time' delivery; it's 'a-minute-too-late' delivery," Kloza says. The river disruption "underscores how hand-to-mouth the supply system is. ... It's a preview of the kinds of things that can happen in spades" as demand rises in the spring and summer driving season.

Americans drive more as the weather warms, increasing demand to 9.5 million to 10 million barrels of gas a day in the summer, vs. 8.7 million now.

"Many signs (point) to a tight gasoline market this driving season," the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

Analysts are more blunt. "Expect major regional gasoline shortages," warns A.F. Alhajji, associate professor and energy economist at Ohio Northern University. When that happens, prices zoom as gasoline wholesalers compete for supplies, giving a regional shortage national impact. Alhajji is confident that "gasoline prices will increase nationwide as we approach the driving season, even in areas that have adequate supplies."

Average gasoline prices in California and Hawaii have topped $2 for a gallon of unleaded regular, and Nevada is close at $1.968, AAA said Wednesday. AAA said regular averaged $1.681 nationwide, up 7.9 cents the last month. That's 5.6 cents less than the record average of $1.737 reported last Aug. 30. EIA, using different data, lists the record as $1.747 last Aug. 25.

Gas would have to average $2.89 to surpass the inflation-adjusted record of $1.417 in 1981.

EIA's weekly report showed gasoline supplies down 1% last week from the previous week. Refining operations were slowed by problems, maintenance and disruptive changes necessary to produce lower-sulfur and summer-blend gas required by clean-air regulations.

Supply worries kicked up West Texas Intermediate crude oil $1.10 per barrel, to $35.68.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (783)2/26/2004 7:35:05 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
REAL ESTATE, THE DOLLAR, SOC SEC, & THE THEFT OF VALUE
Posted By: CliffMickelson
Date: Thursday, 26 February 2004, 7:11 a.m.

Greetings, fellow sheeple!

Please find below, the shear(ed) facts.

#1) REAL ESTATE

San Diego, San Jose, Sacramento, San Francisco, Chico, Paradise, Auburn....

These are just a few of the better known West Coast Real Estate nirvanas.

Or so it would seem over the last decade to giddy investors and home owners who have watched the value of their
"piece of the rock" continue to climb steadily toward the heavens.

But now, it seems that Iccarus may have flown a bit too close to the sun.

In what may be a sign of things to come, on February 27 and 28 HUD, in a radical departure from past policy, will host
an online blowout auction for nearly four thousand repossessed homes.

Many observers feel that this is a pilot program being tested in anticipation by HUD of a coming deluge of foreclosures
across the nation.

An ominous softening in the wax that pins together the under-structure of the West Coast real estate market has begun
to make itself noticed.

Pin feathers are beginning to flutter in the breeze.

How much longer before Iccarus begins his downward spiral?

Not long.

So....

Got equity?

It's time to bail out, Ladies and Gentleman.

Yesterday would be a good time to get started.

There is perhaps, a window of another 10 months.

Those who wait until after the November election to cash out excess paper equity or to sell into a rising market, may find
that they have waited too long.

#2) THE FALLING DOLLAR

Of all the factors influencing the deflation of real estate values,

The falling dollar is currently the most portentous.

It may well provide the push needed to pop the bubble.

In tandem with the obvious downward market pressure exerted by recently unemployed, and foreclosed HUD
homeowners, is the peril (for the gov). Of a growing realization that the dollar is a paper tiger who's claws are taken on a
fading faith.

As more and more outsourcing to overseas locations takes place, the perception of (or faith in) the dollar's seemingly
unshakable base as a yardstick for measuring the value of production will at first hold steady even as the "production" it
measures implodes or shrinks in real value.

Unperceived at first, the whole rotten structure soon becomes unsteady.

Faith, much like love, tends to be a bit blind.

Overseas faith in the dollar is already in trouble and only continues to be propped up by the requirements of an
increasingly inconvenient necessity.

Domestic faith in the dollar however, will blindly endure, until all at once, it suddenly no longer endures. Like a levee
under too much pressure, such blind faith tends to give way all at once.

SOCIAL "SECURITY" AND OTHER FORMS OF THEFT

It would be remiss to overlook the fact that a large part of the organic source of what is left of the dollar's true vitality is
now reaching retirement age.

These new retirees now will begin to consume value instead of adding to the lifetime of stored value they have
accumulated.

The disappearing act from the stage of active wealth creation by the baby boomers is conveniently occurring just in time
to skip out on an incredible amount of paper debt. That burden will be passed on to a younger, shrinking,(relatively) and
increasingly undereducated and underpaid, as well as cluelessly overworked, labor force.

But fear not, there is some justice in the world.....The last laugh may be on the boomers!

Retirement is no guarantee of security. That paradigm has been proved over and over, yet continuously remains a
lesson largely unlearned.

Case in point, Sir Alan of Greenspan has just proposed to Congress that they consider reducing the pay-out of future
Social Security benefits.

Never mind the fact that you and I worked to earn them and they are ours by right of labor. Mr. Greenspan also suggests
that Congress raise the minimum age at which one can begin to receive benefits!

This is a rerun of a game already played.

Readers may recall that it was only a few years ago that the minimum age to receive SS benefits was 55. No more.
Future retirees can look forward to waiting until 65 or even 70.

The end logic here is that sooner or later a person will have to be dead in order to qualify to receive Social Security.

THE THEFT OF VALUE

For those among us who have not already lost their retirement in the great corporate and Wall Street heists of
2001-2002, (Enron, Global Crossing, etc.) be warned....The ways in which your life's work and savings can be purloined
by your own government are legion!

Of course we are all aware of the cynical slow theft of our labor by an induced policy of slow inflation. Americans have
become so used to being robbed in that manner that many would miss it were it to actually cease.

But even better times may await the masochistic faithful.

The devalued dollar, in debtor nations such as America, is in a twisted sense, the same kind of theft, only called by a
different name and implemented in a different manner.

But the real "code red" is a whole other kind of bird.

In the crux, one way that a desperate government may attempt to bail itself out of it's financial and contractual obligations
as pertains to the inconvenience of an aging demographic population, is by instituting a deliberate policy of controlled
(at first) hyperinflation.

In effect, actually stealing the money twice! First time, in slow motion, through the malfeasance of management during
the years it was earned, and the second time by a pernicious high speed theft of value (inflation) from those who
foolishly thought they were supposed to receive the long awaited benefits of their first forced loan to their master.

In a case such as this, there is no refuge. Gold only protects when it is not illegal. The laws that give the power to make
gold illegal again are still on the books. That is no accident. One exception to the last time the government stole the
gold, is collectable gold coin. If things get to the point that those are siezed as well, then.....

Let us simply hope....

Regards:

CliffMickelson



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (783)2/26/2004 7:48:15 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Cars: from Steve on the FOOL

I happened to notice some auto dealer ads in today's Free Press (copy laying in the break room at work) New Chevy Cavilier coupe $9,100. New Chevy Aveo $7,089. Granted the advertised prices are with "A" plan discount, but even someone who works for a GM vendor, like me, gets "Z" plan so could get close to the advertised prices. Dealers are again advertising lease pull aheads so people can turn in a car 8 months early and get a new ride.

Ford's lastest gimic is "Flexbuy"

A whole new way to buy a new Ford Taurus.

For the first three years of your loan Ford will reduce your monthly payment and the remaining 30 payments will be at a slightly higher price.

Which means eligible A/Z/D-Plan employees can buy this well-equipped 2004 Taurus SE for just $195 a month . . .

First three years payment, $195
Remaining 30 month payments, $245
With $1000 down.

Now, with FleX Buy you can get more than you might . . . E X PECT

thinkfordfirst.com

lessee... $1,000 down + 195 X 36 + 245 X 30 = $15,370 for a Taurus with a sticker of $20,890....Bill Ford is freaking desperate to unload iron.

Steve