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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (10669)	2/26/2004 9:50:12 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Respond to of 52153

~$5M???? What was milestone to DOVP for NDA file?

To: Biomaven who wrote (10669)	2/26/2004 10:11:03 PM
From: jayhawk969	Respond to of 52153

NBIX pays 95 million for 1 years of 2.5% royalty. That means that DOVP first 10 years of Indiplone royalties @ 3.5% are worth $139MM assuming everything else is equal. Current NBIX market cap $1.85 billion. Current DOVP market cap $208 million. (1.a) So now NBIX value for Indiplone is 37.5/2.5* 95M = 1.425B + (1.b)35% of life after 10 years. (2.a) DOVP value for Indiplone is 3.5/2.5 * 95M = 138M + (2.b)6% of life after 10 years. NBIX MC - (1.a) = 425M DOVP MC - (2.a) = 80 MM When the MC ration was 18 to 1 my gut was the right investment was DOVP. Now that DOVP has almost doubled it is a much tougher call and one must look at cash flow and other assets to make the right bet. However if Estora fails totally I will look to buy the best option left on Monday.