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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (8794)	2/27/2004 7:29:26 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<Since when have they been going down at 4000 tons + a day> It's been doing the 3000-4000 trot since late summer, then as Grasberg (what are you hearing on this one, now?) and Ok Tedi started having their production problems about October, it went to 5000. Then during the Chilean strikes, we'd see the 5000 plus, even 6000 numbers crop up. So I'm guessing the core deficiency is close to 4000, amplified by the various challenges of mining that you and I have been aware of from day one. The excess capacity mines being brought back, seem to be minor in the scheme of things. There's no room for error or disruption on any of these commodities. This morning's bleed was 4641, and that 4500-5300 area seems to be about where we are running going into March, so maybe a couple hundred MT extra is being produced somewhere. That leaves us with about 100 days of above ground copper left on the planet. Right now I'd say core bleed at current economic activity is minus 4000-4200 minus 1000-1200 Grasberg shortfall, plus 300-400 from normally marginal mines? Something like that?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (8794)	2/27/2004 8:01:19 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Here's the train wreck in coal. Of course I don't know about marginal production potential at these higher prices, but somehow I don't see this industry reopening old half depleted West Virginia seams at least quickly, just too much risk and hassle. I think these prices would be even higher, except you have other bottlenecks (transportation) down the system preventing flow through of the demand. So the maladjustments in the economy send weird signals to just about everybody. And here I thought Austrian economics was just a theory? Obviously, all too real. eia.doe.gov