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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (13622)	2/27/2004 4:48:05 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 95390

I am not sure if these shortages are important long term. For instance, huge copper capacity was closed down when copper dropped under $.70, here, well above a buck these could easily reopen. Sure these shortages coupled with crazy printing of money to stave off a deep recession will eventually bring inflation, the surest way to handle our own growing deficit is to halve it be inflation. When, that is a question I don't even try and answer, the PPI is now so well doctored that who knows what part of it is "raw materials", where shortages are rampant. In other sectors, like production, automobiles, appliances and even semi production capacity, we could have oversupply quite rapidly (we still have capacity for cars worldwide which is about 40% greater than demand). I don't see major inflation coming on until at least late in 2005, and by then, we may end up with the good old "stagflation".