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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (9051)	2/27/2004 10:30:11 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

>>Cary: Customers are ordering in prudent small increments and orders are coming from across the boar >>Brian: This is why I am partial to a longer recovery. Once we see customers ordering with reckless abandon, we will need to worry. I consistently hear that customers are still somewhat hesitant to place large orders, or get very aggressive.....this does not in any way support a sector which is topping out as most analysts currently believe. We need to be careful. There might not be an "explosion" in end chip demand so there would be no explosion in fab orders... since the overbuild the last cycle was so large.... Chip demand will continue to grow exponentially, but so too will chip supply as we go from 200mm to 200mm at 135 and 90nm. This new deal with routing metal diagonally I predict will add another 20 or 30% to chip supply due to more efficient routing vs the current "Manhatten" design rules. This is great news for chipmakers as it delays their need to add capacity a bit. My belief is the next "killer ap" for chips will be hooking up a home (PC, Speakers, HDTV, DVD player, TiVo, multiple TV monitors throughout the house, etc.) with wireless technology. We might be able to buy a single broadband "pipe" and use it for everything from surfing the net. to VOIP phones to pay of demand programming. This will probably put 10 to 100 times more chips into every "connected" home, but when will it happen? I believe Intel is already working on the ideas so they have the right products to sell. My guess is HP Labs and SONY are also working on it. I'd love to seem some cost projections vs time for what it would cost to do all this with technology like BlueTooth or the wireless stuff I have in my home for my laptop (that I know next to nothing about....) Kirk