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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TheSlowLane who wrote (8849)2/27/2004 3:16:39 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Japan prints "only" $30.6 billion for currency intervention in Feb. slackers! That's $197.3 billion printed in six months, and you wonder why we have train wreck inflation developing.

And yes, Don Coxe covers this well. But the inflation is here now. He's description of the three symbiotic countries (US, Japan, China) is perfect. In he says effect, weak currencies in this climate is a killer (train wreck). Not sure about his gold scenario though?

Japan Sold 3.34 Trillion Yen From Jan. 29 to Feb. 25 (Update3)
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan sold 3.34 trillion yen ($30.6 billion) from Jan. 29 through Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo said, to stem currency gains that threaten the nation's exporters.

The yen's 7.6 percent rally against the dollar in the past six months may undermine the world's second-largest economy by cutting profits of exporters including Sharp Corp. and Canon Inc. Japan's economy grew at a 7 percent annual pace last quarter, the fastest in more than 13 years, supported by growing sales abroad.

``The MOF is determined not to let the yen strengthen,'' said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of the treasury and foreign exchange at Mitsubishi Securities Co., a unit of Japan's second- biggest lender.

Analysts and strategists from Nikko Citigroup Ltd. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo said they expected sales of as much as 3.5 trillion yen this month. Currency sales this year have totaled 10.5 trillion yen, more than half last year's record 20.4 trillion yen.

As of 7:30 p.m. in Tokyo, Japan's currency was at 109.03 per dollar, versus 109.57 late yesterday in New York.

The ministry also said it sold 4.99 trillion yen worth of overseas debt from its holdings to the Bank of Japan to raise currency to sell. The central bank makes the sales for the ministry.

`BOJ Will Keep Buying'

``The BOJ will keep buying dollars when the dollar weakens again,'' said Tommy Ong, vice president of treasury and markets at DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd., a unit of Southeast Asia's biggest lender. ``They will be looking at somewhere around 107-108 to halt the dollar's decline,'' said Ong, who is based in Hong Kong.

A rising yen threatens growth by sapping profits at exporters and making Japanese products more expensive abroad. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's biggest carmaker, makes as much as 80 percent of its operating profit in North America.

``An exchange rate of 105 yen to the dollar is probably the limit'' to keep profits growing, Tetsuya Kawakami, a managing director at Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., the world's largest consumer-electronics maker, said earlier this month.

The following table lists Japan's monthly yen sales beginning in January 2003, based on figures from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, in billions of yen.


2003
Jan: (Jan 1 to 29) 678
Feb: (Jan 30 to Feb 26) 513
Mar: (Feb 27 to Mar 27) 1,196
Apr: (Mar 28 to Apr 25) 0
May: (Apr 26 to May 28) 3,983
Jun: (May 29 to Jun 26) 629
Jul: (Jun 27 to Jul 29) 2,027
Aug: (Jul 30 to Aug 27) 0
Sep: (Aug 28 to Sep 26) 4,457
Oct: (Sep 27 to Oct 29) 2,723
Nov: (Oct 30 to Nov 26) 1,600
Dec: (Nov 27 to Dec 26) 2,252

2004
Jan: (Dec 27 to Jan 28) 7,154
Feb: (Jan 29 to Feb 25) 3,342



To: TheSlowLane who wrote (8849)2/28/2004 3:45:51 AM
From: t4texas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
and i see coxe likes the vendor financing angle too.



To: TheSlowLane who wrote (8849)2/28/2004 6:49:45 PM
From: ThirdEye  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Pretty good spin from Coxe. BUT, it spurs me to conjure defensive measures that might occur from CBs to counter a wild bull gold market. Following Coxe's advice, or for that matter, that of many others re gold may be the right direction, but I wouldn't expect it to be smooth. If he's right, shouldn't we expect massive measures to counter speculation?