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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (46757)	2/28/2004 12:38:18 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Xmas party fade... "So, is there a scenario where stocks, bonds, real estate and non-USD currencies gets trashed, and the USD cash and gold goes up? This is the play indicated by the 'contrary Xmas party'." Easy - Euro screws up. Since the Euro took a big dip after its start, few want to go long. Since it has now risen quickly, to $1.25, borrowers will want to avoid. High quality borrowers will be able to use other currencies. Lenders want high quality debtors, but won't get as many in Euros than USD, pounds, yen, Aussie dollars. So the world divides into 2 blocks- Euro and USD, with pegs provided by Japan and China - a pseudo fixed exchange rate block, with very high growth rates, soem at the expense of Europe... So Euro works as an exchange medium, but now as a store of value, and not stable enough to borrow long term. Euro zone also has low growth so funds move to USD block - Asia, US, latin america, etc. Sceanario # 2 - Terrorist attack in Europe, and inadequate European response. US decides to let Europeans handle this one, since US forces are stretched thin. If attack comes from Yemen, Syria, Sudan, etc. - what would Europe do ? Marginal airlift, not enough aircraft carriers.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (46757)	2/28/2004 12:46:49 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

NAV is up 1.96% YTD, compared to 4.46% tally on January 10th Ha! sounds familiar... end of Jan up 3% end of week one Feb... flat... Mid week two of Feb up 8% Yesterday up 90$ LOL and Canadian dollars at that... Today up 1+% Yikes... Did a stupid stupid fear move yesterday or I'd be printing 3+% today.. I'm all in... 40% metals 40% energy 4% wheat (yeah still) balance China stuff and a bit of tech... Every time I raise cash I go insane and buy something else... this can only end badly but I am powerless over the action :o) Spots...