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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8917)	2/28/2004 10:51:46 AM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

<miners did pretty good last couple days. No reason at all they can not keep going up. Miners just are not my primary play> No doubt where I stick for now. I know a tiny bit about them. The rest is over my head but I enjoy the debate. I much appreciate everyones input. tom

To: mishedlo who wrote (8917)	2/28/2004 12:56:25 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Is there anyone that thinks the FED is NOT hiking next year. Anyone?> By next year, do you mean "in the next year", or 2005? Heck, I don't know about 2005, but I'm in the here and now, and the evidence now strongly indicates that very few are looking for much more than a token rate increase anytime in 2004. That's very important to understand right now. Look at your implied Fed Funds futures. trendmacro.com No unclear message there, and serious offside positioning IMO.

To: mishedlo who wrote (8917)	2/28/2004 10:15:51 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<<<Is there anyone that thinks the FED is NOT hiking next year. Anyone?>>> I think the Fed will not hike this and next years. I have a scenario in my sick mind about how the beginning of a credit bubble implosion will look like. My main idea is that something has to cause a slowdown in Real Estate. Right now RE provides both high employment (good wages in construction, mortgages etc) and a supplemental income on as needed basis (home equity). Strong RE is also a big reason for high consumer confidence. Slowdown in RE will kill just about everything. After that bad debt and asset deflation will take hold for years. Yields will fall but it won't help RE which already will be in a free fall. What might cause RE slowdown? It could be ongoing wage deflation or bonds geting spooked by Russ' Train Wreck causing surge in mortgage rates. Now, where is my Prozac? Did you see my Prozac? -VBG-