To: Mephisto who wrote (961 ) 2/28/2004 5:25:38 PM From: Ann Corrigan Respond to of 1381 Edwards Forges Ahead Against Obstacles Saturday, 28-Feb-2004 10:10AM Story from AP / RON FOURNIER CLEVELAND (AP) -- John Edwards' road to the Democratic presidential nomination runs through Ohio, Georgia and Minnesota on Tuesday, then crests with a Southern showdown a week later and a March 16 clash in Illinois, his advisers say. Many Democrats believe the route is strewn with obstacles. The freshman senator from North Carolina must quickly find a way to topple hard-charging John Kerry. The Massachusetts senator has an almost insurmountable lead in delegates, the support of the Democratic establishment and the knowledge that no front-runner has lost his grip on the nomination this late in the election season. "It's hard" Democratic strategist Joe Lockhart said of Edwards' climb. But the former White House press secretary noted that Edwards has a habit of defying polls by quietly rounding up late-breaking voters. "Everything he's done so far in this race has happened the last weekend of the election. So looking through the lens of where we're at now, it looks hard," Lockhart said. "But it may not be the right lens." Ten states with a combined population of 94 million -- about one-third of the U.S. total -- choose 1,151 delegates Tuesday. That is more than 17 times the 67 delegates that were allocated in Iowa and New Hampshire to start the primary season. In Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, Minnesota, Georgia and California, Edwards is stalking votes on terrain that is less friendly and familiar than the states that boosted his candidacy. "We're not running against Kerry," said Edwards strategist David Axelrod. "We're running against time." Edwards did manage to keep pace with Kerry's TV ad broadcasts and found an issue that could cut against Kerry in jobs-strapped Ohio. Kerry voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993, before Edwards came to the Senate. Critical to Edwards' overall strategy, a victory in Ohio would give him a lion's share of the state's 140 delegates and proof that he can beat Kerry in a diverse general-election battleground. In Ohio Edwards' advisers say their surveys show Kerry's advantage in the teens. It's the same in Georgia, a must-win state because of Edwards' Southern ties. Kerry leads by single digits, according to one public poll. Edwards' internal survey shows him trailing Kerry, but just outside the poll's margin of error. A fresh alliance with supporters of fallen foe Howard Dean gives Edwards hope for victory in Minnesota, which holds caucuses. In an effort to save money, Edwards has not paid for polls in Minnesota. He visited the state Friday. Edwards' supporters are hoping for a repeat of Wisconsin, where Edwards beat Kerry 55-22 percent among voters who made their choices in the election's final three days. He narrowly beat or tied Kerry among late-deciders in South Carolina, Oklahoma and Iowa. Edwards also scored big among Republicans and independents in Wisconsin. He hopes that bodes well in the six states that will allow independents, Republicans or both to cast votes Tuesday. With so little time, Edwards has struggled to define differences between himself and Kerry, beyond his sunny disposition pitted against Kerry's solemn demeanor. His advisers are hoping for a race-reshaping moment, such as a debate. Kerry did not hurt himself in a California debate Thursday, they said, making Sunday's debate in New York critical. Edwards' advisers say their candidate can win Ohio, Georgia and one other state Tuesday, most likely Minnesota. That would keep him in the race until March 9, when Edwards dreams of a sweep of Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas to set the table for victory a week later in Illinois. Associated Press writers Emily Fredrix and Will Lester contributed to this report.