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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (8935)	2/28/2004 6:21:23 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Respond to of 110194

Russ, RE: "Would be their excuse to make the initial rate hike March 16..." I'm sure you have heard the statement "The raw material price increases are because of the strengthening economy." I've been thinking that this line of thinking may be extended when inflation becomes widely acknowledged. For instance, something along the lines "some inflation is a good thing, as it will provide pricing power which has been lacking" or myriad other variations of why (limited) inflation may be considered beneficial. If this type of thinking takes hold, it may well delay any type of rate increase even if inflation is generally acknowledged. This may seem crazy, but what isn't these days... DB

To: russwinter who wrote (8935)	2/28/2004 7:52:37 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Would be their excuse to make the initial rate hike March 16 to teach "long everything" speculators some manners. Then Greenspan could announce that deflation has been licked, that jobs are getting on track, do a little "I'm ballsy" end zone dance, announce his retirement, ride off into the sunset, right as the train wreck really gets rolling. The rate increase might delay the train wreck just long enough for him to pack his bags in May (it'll be close, no increase and Train Wreck arrives in force in April). Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out, Easy, and don't forget to flush the toilet. And turn off the lights, there's an energy shortage. You really expect the FED to pull a surprise after telling people to get variable rate loans? I think you are off your rocker. That is not the nature of this fed. We have yet see a bias change. Perhaps you see that. So far all we have seen is a change from considerable period to patient. Finally, you think greenspan is a total idiot (and so do I) yet you choose to believe this idiot when it comes to jobs and nothing else. Tha man either has credibility or he does not. It is obvious to me, that he is attempting to jawbone consumer confidence up. Nothing more nothing less. "Jobs any time now" How freaking long have they said that? You fail to realize that their MODELS ARE HOPELESS! You seem to understand they are hopeless on CPI and productivity yet you are placing faith in a busted model that has been predicting jobs for over a year without doing so. This does not compute. Every single time Greenspan burps, bond bears take it as a call for rate hikes. I think he just getting indigestion over his stupid economic analysis that says we should be producing jobs but are not. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (8935)	2/29/2004 12:27:46 PM
From: justwhatuwant	Respond to of 110194

<< Then Greenspan could announce that ... announce his retirement, ride off into the sunset, ...>> No one here has brought this up. What IF he announces he is retiring? Will this be a killer offside? He can play it as "retirement" but others may see it as an early exit (aka a Jeffrey Skilling move)? This will definitely add a hiccup to everything but will it change everything? (OK I see Russ posted an article about a successor after this so maybe that will start some further discussion)