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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8975)	2/29/2004 1:20:49 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<It should have been clear to ANYONE that I was not talking about inventories of base metals, oil, NG, etc> Nonsense, your skirting my point, this has nothing to do with our views, focus, and opinions. And we can speculate here on just about everything, even if it's not especially backed up. I did it yesterday on Greenspan's retirement. Who knows on that one, just food for thought. Nor does it have anything to do with raw commodity inventories and you know it. This has to with you coming on here and specifically citing from business and wholesale (those ARE NOT just commodities)inventories and Chicago PMI numbers, interpreting them as "inventories are rising" "how much more can they go", as if it was the gospel truth, when in reality it's exactly the opposite, making your statement utter nonsense. You could have said, "inventories should be this low because consumer demand is falling off a cliff, and here's some evidence", and you WOULD NOT have gotten my ire and reaction. But that's not what you said, is it? Just real poor debate style on your part. This kind of thing continues to surprise and perplex me about our debate, because you seem a pretty insightful and alert researcher, and I've picked up good stuff from you. We all make mistakes in this discourse, but many times it just seems like you decide to get lazy (sometimes real lazy), especially when it comes to debating me. And when you get lazy, it forces me to work even harder to present the correct evidence and facts to refute these regular misinformation turds, and that is tedious for me. Again, I ask you to double check your facts. I've put a whole slew of linked sites on the header, including a few you've come up with. Better yet link to your source, and then if you still decide to post comments claiming "rising or high inventories" when the facts show otherwise, participants here can see what you are looking at directly, rather than having me be bad cop. Fair?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8975)	2/29/2004 1:48:49 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<You continually overlook jobs as if they do not matter.> Here's my view on your job part of this debate. America is a great divide society: you have maybe 20-30% and growing of it's people who are really suffering (I know as I was once a large urban landlord). More and more get dumped into that group all the time. You have another 10- 20% who are one pink slip away from the same fate. But, you have about half, that have blank checks they can write on bubble assets courtesy of Easy Al and Helicopter Ben, and that fuels the Train Wreck I'm talking about. You think the last group of people really gives a shit about razors and toe nail clipper prices at Wal Mart? I really don't, when I complain about Guiness prices, I'm jerking chains. So they will just borrow and spend, borrow and spend as long as the game is allowed, and no penalty flags are thrown. So by and large it's that group of people that are fueling a worldwide vendor financed inflationary bust, being led by their friends the Wizards. Now I will grant you that Easy AL is using the lower third group (jobs) as the excuse to perpetuate the boom, but that doesn't dimish the bust outcome one iota. Do you think the stories about intermediate and finished goods outfits starting to hit the wall, just came out of nowhere or out of a vaccum? Message 19861138 Message 19861118 I don't, this is no freak accident even if the Wizards try to paint it as so, it has a cause and I've presented that clearly I think. There will be pain no matter what, I just think saving the currency and enduring a severe recession is a better outcome than a crack-up boom and Train Wreck. I think avoidance of the later is too late, but a crack-up boom (monetary meltdown) could still be avoided with the proper steps. Stayed tuned on the outcome, as it's pace will totally be determined by the policy reactions of the Great Symbiosis (China, US, Japan). And your guess is as good as mine, on the policies choosen. We just pays our money and takes our chances.