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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (13635)	2/29/2004 7:18:09 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95383

SNIP: Outside of NASDAQ and SOX the market held up well. Breadth was solid, led by gains in the market leading mid-caps and small caps. DJ30 and SP500 continued to look solid as well, showing slight gains on higher volume. No breakouts and they gave back their highs, but they are holding up very well in their lateral consolidations. They still need to pull back further to set up the next move, but they look fine in their narrow lateral ranges. As noted earlier, NASDAQ was not showing great action with the higher volume doji at resistance following a lower volume rebound from higher volume selling. All the indications of a modest rebound running out of steam and sellers jumping on at that resistance. SOX could be even more important. Even though it is a small part of technology, it is key as chips tend to lead the market both up and down. SOX is showing an important crossover where the 18 day MVA is crossing down through the 50 day MVA. It has been below the 50 day for 5 sessions. It is not definitely a breakdown, but it is trending below the 50 day and that typically indicates more selling. Not straight line; it can bounce around the 50 day MVA and even back over it, and it might not be as deep of a correction as say in early 2003 when SOX and NASDAQ both showed this same action. It is a sign of continuing weakness, however. The market moves in momentum; one action begets another, trends stay in place until something big breaks it. Once an index shows this type of crossover it tends to keep that momentum. Another sign of the consolidation underway. InvestmentHouse Weekend Update: investmenthouse.com

To: Return to Sender who wrote (13635)	2/29/2004 8:27:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

<<So what do I know?>> I for one, think you know a great deal. All the work you have done and the development of your web site has given you very good insight into the market. I can go along with many of the things you say, and if I had followed your analysis a little more closely, I might have done better than I did in the past several months. However, having said all that, I don't think I am as concerned about a "SOX/SMH head and shoulders breakdown" as you are. I think we are in more of a "tight" trading range over the next several months as opposed to a significant move either up or down. A lot of "sector rotation" is going on, but the NASDAQ has not moved very much. For the past 8 weeks, the trading has been pretty well confined to the 2000 - 2050 range, and most of the time, has been well within that range. Since the beginning of November, the SOX has been trading in a relatively narrow band, as a person would expect by looking at some of the tabular data previously posted on this thread. With the exception of a couple of weeks, both up and down, since the beginning of November, the SOX has been trading roughly in the range of 495 to 535. Will the NASDAQ and/or the SOX move significantly, one direction or the other, from the ranges just described over the next several weeks? I would vote for more of the "status quo" for the near future. I think we have a giant "tug of war" going on right now between the bulls and the bears, and neither camp is winning at the moment. The semi-equips have already taken a beating, and the SOX to a lesser degree, over the past 6 weeks. How much further down can you go when 13(over half) of the 25 stocks in the Group have PEG's less than one when earnings estimates continue to rise - as I think they will continue to do for the forseeable future? On the other hand, how much upside is available when many "entities" think this current cycle is due to end in 6 months and now is the time to "get out"? Others, like Mr Yu, think another 15 to 30 percent haircut is needed, on top of the 15 to 20 percent already in place over the past 6 weeks, to remove excessive valuation from the semi-equip sector. We have just had 6 "down weeks" for the Group - a pullback of 17 percent. I am guessing we will have a positive close for the Group for this coming week - not a big number, but positive. Don