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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9066)	3/1/2004 3:47:12 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

From today's Don R. Hays dispatch to paying subscribers (bolding was his, not mine): Make no mistake about it, this Bull Market is alive and well. It is only taking a well deserved rest that will produce dramatically higher gains before this election year is over. I’m still pitching for additional gains of 20%+ as the market only returns to “norm.” All kinds of “things” are returning to “norm,” like the dollar, the price of gold AND earnings estimates. The stage is being set for HUGE gains in the next five years, although the “wiggles” will give the sooth-sayers several opportunities to continue to preach their sermon of gloom-and-doom. The technology-heavy NASDAQ will continue to be the leading index as it becomes the U.S. Stock Market Standard Bearer for the next 20 years, but again each “wiggle” consolidation will be met with “THE END” projections from technicians. Now, for the “wiggle” mentality. On January 20, 2004 a combination of several factors, most notably the high bullish reading of the VERY secondary psychological sentiment surveys and the overbought condition, forced us to recommend the first “theoretical” cash position of 15% in our portfolios as we expected a period of “WORRY” to calm the bullish spirits before the next (and maybe final) big rally in this bull market. Well guess what, only 5 weeks later, those fickle bullish sentiments are running for cover. They are not in an all-out panic mode yet, but they sure are panicking out of technology. The stage is being set. The exciting news is that our colloquialism for the massively misconstrued action in the dollar “weakness”—the Currency Enforcer, is now strutting its stuff. Nobody bought my thesis nine months ago, that the dollar weakness was not an unhealthy situation, but indeed healthy and needed to return to the norm of 1995-96, and more importantly to put the squeeze on a stubborn and block-headed ECB to force them to get with the future by starting to promote maximum growth to fight off the real enemy—Deflation. This is an essential ingredient as the world enters the next high-growth era when all countries with any hope of staying healthy will become Democratic and Capitalistic. The flagrant fight against Terrorism is another very important ingredient as those mesmerized citizens of those repressed countries begin to taste the sweet taste of economic success of “working” their way up the ladder. Can you believe it is March 1st? Speaking of March 1st that means that the typical “weaker” month of February is over and seasonally these next few days (and the month of March) have much stronger seasonal strength. We are hearing all kinds of information about the big mutual fund inflows of the last period, and that is partially the reason for the seasonal strength I suspect, as pension funds and tax refunds start to filter into the market.