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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (9084)	3/1/2004 5:26:58 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Russ, Do you agree with that last sentence?> I agree with this part of the sentence, "taking into consideration medical expenses, gasoline, tax cuts, home interest deductions, food, necessities, etc.". And I'd add lack of wage and salary growth. But not especially (or at least yet) with this part, "the consumer has less money". I make a very important distinction here that has gotten us firing at cross purposes in our discussion. As long as refis are running over 2500, and credit card debt keeps expanding at 6-8%, the consumer has access "to money". True, it's not HIS or HER money, but it's still money nevertheless, that he and she can use and spend to support and nourish the Train Wreck. The consumer has borrowed 7.4 times what he's earned since the "end of the recession", and that's real demand and money. As you've well stated, the Wizards apparently have another round of that kind of nonsense in store.

To: mishedlo who wrote (9084)	3/1/2004 6:25:24 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

dont forget that food bills are big bite of hhold budgets because most are fat slobs many people eat for two and top it off with a diet coke just to make sure they drain all minerals out of the body / jim

To: mishedlo who wrote (9084)	3/2/2004 9:25:56 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<You do not think this boom just dies on its own accord without a hike?> Not on the demand side, perhaps under my Train Wreck scenario, it will happen with supply shocks, in the meantime: borrow, spend, borrow, spend. Reuters Chain Store Sales Show Strength Tuesday March 2, 9:00 am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores finished the month showing surprising strength, with retailers looking forward to a busy spring season, a report said on Tuesday. The pace of sales at major retailers increased by 5.8 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Feb. 28, up slightly from the preceding week's 5.6 percent pace, research group Redbook said. Sales in February were up 1.2 percent compared with January. "The strength surprised some retailers, since it was not entirely typical of a transitional month early in a new season," the report said Redbook expects March chain store sales to stay flat with February's 5.7 percent rise on a year-over-year basis. The Redbook data are compiled from a sample of same-store sales at general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least one year.