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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13649)	3/1/2004 6:09:26 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95383

Also, for the record, here is the write up from Briefing.com on the Intel downgrade. <<Ratings Briefing - INTC : JP Morgan downgrades Intel (INTC 29.20) to Neutral from Overweight, saying it has yet to see any meaningful improvement in the notebook segment, and as a result, firm believes the company will not raise guidance during its mid-qtr update for the first time in almost a year. In addition, checks indicate Q2 bookings at Intel have been soft, which could be a second negative catalyst for the stock as consensus estimates could be lowered following Q1 results. Intel's delay in launching Prescott and Dothan could hurt overall ASPs in the near-term, and J.P. Morgan expects that there could be a small negative impact from AMD gaining share in low-end servers with Opteron products. What It Means: * At J.P. Morgan a Neutral rating means that firm expects the stock, over the next 6-12 months, will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe * While Nasdaq futures are pointing to a higher open, don't look for Intel to lead the uptick as the J.P. Morgan downgrade should ensure continued underperformance for the stock, which is down 8.9% for the year versus a 1.15% decline for the SOX, a 1.3% gain for the Nasdaq, and a 3.0% gain for the S&P 500 * Intel's mid-quarter update to occur after Thursday's close.... absent any other influential firms coming to Intel's defense, the timing of J.P. Morgan's downgrade should keep stock under wraps going into update * Rationale for J.P. Morgan's downgrade plays into concerns that semi stocks have gotten ahead of fundamentals as J.P. Morgan is pointing to lower than expected demand in notebook segment as reason for why Intel will not raise guidance during its update for first time in almost a year; moreover, J.P. Morgan also calling into question the validity of current consensus estimates for Intel for Q2 * J.P. Morgan said it is forecasting the rate of revenue growth for Intel to decline throughout 2004 and 2005... acknowledgment apt to invite added concern about stock's prospects as J.P. Morgan notes that changes in Intel's stock price have traditionally closely correlated with actual yr/yr growth rates in revenues * Prevailing view on Intel in the analyst community is skewed to the bullish side, so if Intel disappoints with mid-quarter update, look for a slew of downgrades to follow.. current distribution: 15 Buy; 16 Outperform; and 7 Hold [source: Reuters Research] * Sidenote: J.P. Morgan also downgraded its semiconductor sector rating to Neutral from Positive and cut its rating on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Underweight from Neutral... on Feb. 13, Banc of America trimmed its Q1 revenue estimate for Intel, citing weaker than expected notebook PC demand... Intel is a component in Briefing.com's portfolio for active investors-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com>> On 1/8, INTC closed for its high this year at 34.24, and closed last Friday at 29.20. This is a 15 percent drop over this period and still it was not enough for JPM. Other analysts/brokerages have come to INTC's defense today and the stock did finish with a nearly 2 percent gain for the day.