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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (1042)	3/2/2004 3:27:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

" With a stronger dollar, ``there'll be less intervention from foreigners, notably the Japanese, and because of less intervening there'll be less dollars to move into Treasuries, so a stronger dollar becomes a negative for the Treasury market,'' said Brian Edmonds, head of Treasury trading at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York. The firm is one of 23 primary U.S. government securities dealers that trade with the Fed's New York branch. " That is his speculation but I do not buy it. #1) I think China will continue to do so if Japan stops (possibly a Taiwan deal?) #2) Japan intends to stay ahead of Europe and Europe is pissed about it. Competition there will keep one or the other buying in size #3) The world is still too dependent on US consumers. I do not see this changing soon. A recession here would not be good for anyone and if rates rise here we get instant recession. Mish