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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arnie h who wrote (10764)	3/2/2004 5:14:55 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

NBIX - Indiplon NDA: So their submission should come just about when SEPR gets approval. Assuming a ten month review, followed by one month for resubmission and two more months for final approval, we get Estorra just over a year ahead of Indiplon. One important note about the NBIX results - these were for the modified release version, and claimed no next day sleepiness. This probably takes a big remaining risk out of the picture. The issue is that, to the extent there is any variability in the release characteristics, you might get some people with active amounts of drug onboard the next morning. (For most time-release indications it doesn't really matter what the tail looks like, but for sleep drugs this is a significant concern). I must say I'm pretty surprised (and pleased) how strong NBIX has been in the face of Estorra news. At one point I was even contemplating NBIX spreads as a cheap way to play the Estorra decision - fortunately I decided against it. Peter