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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13682)	3/3/2004 1:27:27 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95587

3/2/2004 4:16 PM Hold onto Your SOX CNN/Money "Scoop up chips on the dip? " Published: 3/2/2004 Brief Summary: This article gives a mixed review of the semiconductor sector. While it points out the recent dip is a curious one-"The timing of the pullback is a bit curious beca,use most of the eighteen chip and chip equipment companies in the SOX, including Intel, reported extremely strong fourth quarter results and gave upbeat guidance for the first quarter. " One thing I found to be curious was the consensus that the place to be is in consumer-related chip companies. "If Intel raises this guidance and gives an indication that consumer spending remains strong and that corporate spending is continuing to recover, then that could be a big catalyst for chip stocks. But even if Int,el's news is extremely good, it might not be the best bet. Some fund managers think that the recent dip in chips represents a good opportunity to get into lesser-known semiconductor names...especially those that have strong consumer electronics exposure." The article goes on to quote two separate analysts that favor the chip companies that rely on demand for consumer electronics. Contrarian Takeaway: If you look at the Semiconductor HO,LDRs Trust (SMH) and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), they have both just bounced off of support at 40 and 495, respectively. Care to guess where the peak front-month put open interest is on these two? You guessed it, 40 and 500. The open interest at the 40 level on the SMH shows a huge discrepancy between puts and calls: 48,216 to 9,050 contracts. Meanwhile on the SOX, the open interest is not as numerous as the SMH, but the discrepancy is still better than 4.5 to one with 1,612 puts to 341 calls. Intel (INTC) h,as seen its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio drop over the past week. However, puts were unusually active in today's trading and we would not be surprised if this trend continues over the next two days ahead of the company's mid-quarter update on Thursday. One other note on the SMH and SOX: both the aforementioned levels coincide with the lower rail of a regression channel that dates back to the lows of October 2002 Found at: siliconinvestor.com