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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NightOwl who wrote (125579)	3/3/2004 7:39:47 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<bomb Germany into rubble before the close of 1937> Good idea. That's everybody's favorite example of a Preventive War. It sounds so right, so Just and Good. Almost Holy. Let's briefly examine the assumptions, and necessary conditions, and unintended consequences, for your Preventive Good War: 1. Your Intel has to be very good, and not just about the past and present, but the future as well. It is only Good, you can only know what is Prevented, because you know how the future turned out. So, in 1937, you need to about 1944. This doesn't happen, in the universe I live in. 2. After you bomb them......what then? If you just bomb, and then leave them alone, they are going to be very, very pissed. They probably won't believe you, when you tell them it was for the Common Good, and this was the Lesser Evil. By 1941, or 1945, or sometime, they will make nukes. And use them. On you. Is this a better future? 3. OK, so you've come around to the sad fact, that bombing them till the rubble bounces, is just Step 1, and you've still got a lot of work to do, to prevent the future war crimes of Hiroshima and Dachau. 4. One small question: only Germany? Leave Mussolini to govern Italy and occupy Ethiopia, till the end of his unnatural life? Leave the militarists in Japan, to rape a Nanking each year forever, trying to pacify China? 5. OK, so you've bombed, and then invaded, all the fascist nations of 1937. Now what? Remember, it was the Russians who mainly took on and destroyed the main German armies, in the Real War. In this Alternative Preventive Good War, you're probably on your own. Even the Brits, under their "peace in our time" Prime Minister, won't be helping out. Certainly not the Russians. Maybe the French, maybe. So the U.S. ends up fighting the Battles of Stalingrad and Leningrad and Kursk (in other locations, of course). 6. Add it up, and your Alternative is going to end up killing just as many Americans and Germans as what really happened. Perhaps not as many Russians and Jews. So, to sum up: Preventive wars only work for those who have Second Sight, and have perfect Intel about the future. And can predict and avoid all Unintended Consequences.

To: NightOwl who wrote (125579)	3/4/2004 4:49:32 AM
From: Sig	Respond to of 281500

<<<For instance on my way back to 1776, I would likely be delayed by the need to at least consider trying to bomb Germany into rubble before the close of 1937. Then there'd have been the whole Russian problem and the Ottoman, British, Dutch, Belgian, Boer, French, and Chinese situations to deal with >>>> I think it would be useful to consider what the US Government could have done to prevent the occurance of major wars ( civil war, ww1, ww11) or to be better prepared Some things which come to mind....... 1.Is that wars will occur despite all hopes for peace and it is even more likely today that the US will be dragged into them because of our widespead commercial operations. (in 1996 there were 55 ongoing wars or conflicts) Comments were made after WW11 that we always had to fight the next war with the last wars equipment, meaning our WW1 battleships and obsolete Navy The Government learned something from this and has since kept a much more up-to-date military (which Clinton let slide a bit) As an result we have not had our economy completely disrupted by later conflicts. In summary : Wars will occur despite all desire for peace, and therefore it is best to be well prepared. Speak softly and carry a big stick. Citizens in their daily lives, trying to progress while investing in homes, businesses and property count on the Government to prevent foreigners from destroying those efforts. But we are ill-informed as to the status of our Military (purposely) to avoid having an enemy know our capability. Who ever heard of the A-bomb before 1945? Who heard of an F-117 before they were operating in the skies over Baghdad in 1991? Or the B2 bomber? I am out of time, and will leave it to others to debate how we can be better prepared for terrorists. GPS positioning has been improved to have an accuracy of inches. Tell the US where a terrorist lives and they can put a missile down his smokestack , from 1500 miles away Sig