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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (46963)	3/4/2004 5:29:42 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Re: Methinks all those extra North American NG fired plants might not look so smart in a few years... Actually, they don't look so smart today. Calpine is flirting with bankruptcy, though it seemed to wisely have purchased gas and gas rights as well as borrowing dramatically to construct new combined cycle IPP generation stations. The State of Mississippi is littered with shut-in, brand new gas fired generators, who got the tax subsidies, all right, but missed the important concepts of inadequate T&D and the volatility of natural gas prices. Right about now, lots of IPPs are having migraine headaches over their financial structures which are blowing up due to overly optimistic projections of natural gas supply. Which, BTW, seems to have peaked in 2002. Production was down 5% in the U.S. last year, in spite of prodigious drilling effort. We've turned a corner on supply. It's going to get really ugly for unprepared consumers when the speculators try to corner the market in the next crisis period, perhaps as early as next winter.