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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (1225)	3/4/2004 5:18:55 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

my wife sells residential real estate in the detroit suburbs. she just made an offer on a house listed for 600k. the most she thought the house was worth and what her buyers would pay was 550k. the people couldn't sell their house for that. they would be 20k underwater. this house was several years old and the people had leveraged it with home equity loans. this isn't the first house like this she's run across. has anyone said this is going to end badly?

To: mishedlo who wrote (1225)	3/4/2004 5:31:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

More from Heinz on the Great Train Wreck inflation theory of course the crack-up boom in China is dangerous...no doubt about that. but the train has left the station...it doesn't matter anymore if the credit boom is stopped voluntarily or not...the end result will be the same, a huge deflationary bust. btw., i think the bond markets are already seeing through all of this, which is why they refuse to sell off to any significant degree. everybody and his auntie is leveraged up to their eyeballs in emerging market bonds, junk bonds and equities...the Western banking system has never been as leveraged in these arenas as it is now. the fall-out is imo going to be dramatic, it's going to put previous crises like Russia '98 really into perspective.

To: mishedlo who wrote (1225)	3/4/2004 6:56:44 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Still Like Your Idea That They'd Couple a Ferocious PPI ..with a bad jobs report--just to keep the markets confused. However, as I'm sure you've seen--Briefing.com has no idea what they are posting, in saying the Mysterious Missing PPI will "emerge" tomorrow. (I keep checking bls.gov site--but there remains no confirmation of a release.) I look for more Treading Water, Mish, in tomorrow's job reports. Nothing horrific on the upside or downside--because February just isn't the kind of month, IMO, that tends to zig or zag in either direction. That said, I am firm that bond and currency risk--and Trading Risk in general--remains to an "upside" report. Clearly the markets have already positioned themselves for that--but it may not be enough. I'm not trading it, therefore. It's just too wacky already. One exception: if Silver got killed tomorrow I might wade back in to some more CDE. Good luck. Regards, LP