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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9379)	3/5/2004 8:22:39 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I wonder about his post. I remember reading an article about LUKOIL several years ago which indicated that this single Russian company had more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. There is a lot of oil in Russia and yet most analysts don't discuss it. I don't pretend to know the answers, but the espoused in the article sounds like the people in the 70's who were preaching doom and gloom. Remember they said we were going to be out of oil by now. Oil adjusted for inflation is still cheap. Don't know the answers but I would like to see more objective and factual analysis and a lot less hype on this issue. Little joe

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9379)	3/5/2004 8:24:32 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

New York Crude Oil Rises Above $37 a Barrel on Venezuela Unrest March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York rose to more than $37 a barrel for the first time since the buildup to the Iraq war on concern increasing protests in Venezuela may limit shipments to the U.S. before the peak summer driving season. Venezuela's ambassador to the United Nations, Milos Alcalay, resigned yesterday, saying President Hugo Chavez's government isn't protecting human rights or adhering to democratic principles. Ten people have been killed in protests since Friday. Venezuela is one of the four biggest suppliers to the U.S., where gasoline inventories fell for a fifth week in six last week. ``U.S. gasoline supplies are looking dangerously low and with news of unrest in Venezuela, it's adding further fuel to the fire,'' said Rob Laughlin, a director at London futures brokerage GNI Ltd. ``If shipments are disrupted, there's a worry U.S. refiners won't be able to meet demand this summer.'' Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 48 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $37.12 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On London's International Petroleum Exchange, April Brent crude rose as much as 51 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $33.40 a barrel. Both prices are the highest since March 2003, when the U.S. and U.K. were preparing to invade Iraq. Chavez said Sunday his country would stop all oil shipments to the U.S. if the country tries to blockade or invade Venezuela. Strikers seeking Chavez's ouster largely shut the country's oil industry in December 2002 and January 2003. ``Refiners are worried they're going to see a repeat of last year's problems,'' said Dave Thomas, an oil analyst at Commerzbank Securities in London. ``Shipments from Venezuela to the U.S. were severely disrupted and if the same happens this year, price spikes in the crude and gasoline markets will be inevitable given how low supplies already are.'' Venezuela Production A spokesman for Petroleos de Venezuela, the state-owned oil company, said yesterday that operations remain unaffected by the protests and stand at 3.2 million barrels a day. The figure is disputed by former employees of the company, who said output is closer to 2.6 million barrels a day. ``As a result of the last strike, all leaders prone to head any initiative of this type were removed,'' said Alan Viergutz, chairman of Venezuela oil services company Grupo Centec, in Caracas. ``It is unlikely that there will be another oil strike in Venezuela.'' The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't reverse its decision to cut production even though oil prices continue to climb, Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez said. ``We are firm in our conviction to follow through with the cut in April,'' Ramirez told reporters after a meeting at the presidential palace yesterday. OPEC Resolve OPEC, which pumps a third of the world's oil, plans to reduce production by 2.5 million barrels by April 1. It wants to preempt a drop in prices during the second quarter, when fuel demand typically falls following the end of winter. The unrest in Venezuela comes as U.S. refiners are struggling to replenish gasoline stockpiles for the summer driving season, which begins in May. U.S. gasoline inventories fell 1.4 million barrels to 202 million in the week ended Feb. 27, the lowest in 12 weeks, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Supplies are 4.7 percent below the average for the same period during the past five years. Gasoline for April delivery rose 0.48 cent, or 0.4 percent, to $1.1100 a gallon on Nymex at 8:22 a.m. London time. Yesterday, it climbed 0.9 percent to $1.1052 a gallon. Refinery Shutdowns Refiners' efforts to boost gasoline reserves have been hampered by a lack of raw material available for processing, traders said. U.S. crude oil supplies stand close to 28-year lows. A series of unplanned shutdowns by refiners in the past month has also prevented gasoline reserves from being rebuilt. Valero Energy Corp., the third-largest U.S. oil refiner, shut a gasoline-making unit at its St. Charles refinery in Louisiana because of a mechanical failure, Reuters reported yesterday, citing unidentified people with a knowledge of the plant's operations. ``The last thing we need are refineries going down with supplies as tight as they are,'' said Laughlin. ``The market is thriving on all these bullish factors.''

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9379)	3/5/2004 8:24:54 AM
From: big guy	Respond to of 110194

<Another reason why inflation will be the wave of the future: Can anyone doubt that Fed will monetize the inevitable huge rise in energy prices that is coming in the years ahead.> I think there is still time to prepare Fillmore if this issue can be brought into the light. I can't understand why it isn't there already. If we were to pursue a path that would lessen the blow of such an event I believe it would also do much to help our ailing economy. By turning our governments spending initiative from securing oil sources abroad to investments in alternative energy initiatives here at home people could be put back to work. And if this peak oil thing turned out to be all smoke and mirrors then the process would have the benefit of reducing our dependence on many unstable regions of the world. If countries like China and India can kick our tails in trade because of cheap labor then think of what an advantage it would be for a nation who could produce with a cheap source of energy.