To: The Ox who wrote (13743 ) 3/5/2004 8:54:01 AM From: Return to Sender Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 96064 MORNING WATCH, Mar. 5 By Frederic Ruffy, Optionetics.com 3/5/2004 5:45:00 AM optionetics.com Index futures were pointing to a weaker open Friday morning following disappointing monthly unemployment numbers. Shortly after the Labor Department released the report, index futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) slipped forty points and Nasdaq ($COMPQ) futures also lost ground. Meanwhile, chip stocks may fall on the heels of a disappointing mid-quarter update from a tech bellwether and energy stocks may show strength following a sharp rise in the price of crude oil. Non-farm payrolls rose by 21,000 during the month of February, according to the latest numbers from the Labor Department. The report, which is released on the first Friday of every month, was a huge disappointment to some investors because economists were expecting a solid gain of 225,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.6%. The much weaker-than-expected jobs numbers are seen weighing on stocks in early trading because the report dispelled the notion that the employment situation in the United States is in the midst of a vast improvement, which may in turn raise concern that the economy is not strong enough to justify the stock market’s recent advance or current valuations. Meanwhile, shares of Intel (INTC) will probably weigh on the technology sector in early trading Friday. The stock slipped 1.5% in premarket trading after the world’s largest chipmaker gave its mid-quarter update late Thursday. At that time, Intel lowered its quarterly revenue forecast by $100 million and blamed an oversupply of computer chips in Asia for the revision. The numbers missed analyst forecasts and shares of Intel, as well as other chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Texas Instruments (TXN), edged lower in overseas trading. Energy stocks may be strong as oil prices continue their recent ascent. Early Friday, crude rose above $37.00 a barrel for the first time since before the Iraq war. The rise was fueled by concerns of political unrest in Venezuela, which could create a shortage of supplies ahead of the busy summer driving season in the US. The recent gains in crude has helped boost shares of many energy companies. The Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH), for instance, are trading near two-year highs. In the options market, traders continue to price in the prospect of low volatility going forward. Yesterday, the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) eased .15 to 14.40 and towards its multi-year lows. The relatively quiet trading and low volatility has left many traders looking for individual stories or events that might trigger a sharp move higher or lower in a stock price. For example, calls on OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) have been active lately. The bullish plays appear to be in anticipation that the company will soon announce positive news on the cancer treatment Tarceva. Biotech stocks have been in the spotlight lately due to strong gains in stocks like Sepracor (SEPR) and Genentech (DNA), which have recently announced favorable developments related to FDA approval of key treatments. The MS Biotech Index ($MVB) is up more than 5% so far this month and has been among the best performers so far in March. Frederic Ruffy Senior Writer Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site