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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GraceZ who wrote (18169)3/5/2004 7:42:26 PM
From: Amy JRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
Grace, RE: "think the official CPI is representative"

I don't think it is. But if you don't believe me (because I could be an anomaly case), there is a CPI for San Francisco aka "CPI-SF". And it's simply wrong - in fact, in one of the articles here even someone from BLS has acknowledged CPI is in error and am of the impression they are considering changes to fix it. Btw, not sure if that's good or bad <G>. CPI-SF understates our local inflation by more than the amount that is equivalent to the issue someone in BLS has taken on as an issue for CPI.

But maybe Les has something here, about using the govt's 4.4% raise rate, rather than CPI.

RE: "(my comment) I'd also wager a guess that you could be discounting the cost of starting out. (your comment) She's a material girl who loves plastic. If that's what you mean about starting out"

No, that's not what I mean. But I think you do know what I mean. It doesn't look like you are discounting your startout costs. When you graduated from school, you probably had startup costs, like a couch to sit on, a table to eat, a dishwasher, wash machine, etc. Replacing any of those items isn't significantly noticeable as starting out fresh, at least it isn't for me (since I tend to keep the same life style, and if anything, get smarter as a consumer.) So, if you're not adjusting your figure (call it CPI-Grace) by your startout costs, then you are actually understating CPI-Grace. But if your figures exclude startup costs, then I'd still say CPI isn't representative across the board, certainly not CPI-SF and believe BLS agrees with this assessment.

RE: " No three computers, no TiVo, no snow blower, weed whacker, hedgehog, chain saw, table saw, reciprocal saw, lawn tractor, Palm Pilot, printers, network hubs, DVD player and we didn't have cable, Internet service, Netflix, cell phone service"

Many hightech people don't have many of the expenses mentioned above because these come free with the hightech job - PCs & printers come free (though you have to pay the comp tax), mobiles, pda's, DVD player comes your PC (say a MediaCenter). Though I've never seen anyone with a snow blower around here and thankfully nor a chain saw : )

Grace, on another note, what do you think of this rather low cost lifestyle here? Check this out:

us.cnn.com

"Lionel Richie's wife, who is seeking spousal support from the pop star as their divorce case proceeds, has told a Los Angeles judge that the couple regularly spent more than $300,000 a month."

If she's spending 300k/mo, he needs to have at least a $300M portfolio to support such a lifestyle (if you use the rule never spend more than 1% of a portfolio, i.e. 5% bond - 2 inflation (if you believe it) - 2% reserved for mistakes, buffer or growth = 1% portfolio), but don't recall Richie being in Forbes' list, so she must be spending him into an early grave, to say the least. Then she files for divorce, because he's about to go on a tour and was not around for her birthday while he's out making more money for her to spend. Some people don't get the connection between availability and income earned. Divorces would probably drop in half, if judges ruled couples have to reduce their expenses before they are granted a divorce. Most divorces are related to money problems.

Regards,
Amy J