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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (1327)3/5/2004 4:05:25 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
That is the part i dont get: I feel the remedy would bring it on but Roach seems to beleive we are not past the point of no return. He is no dummy. What do you think he is seeing? He seems to not be talking his game here> FWIW it sounds pretty damn straight.

Rememember he can have lapses. Big ones. He stubbormly held to double dip recession for how long? (for the record, so did I). Now that we no longer hear about it and NO ONE is talking about it, it is far more likely. Everyone thought it was coming and it did not and now everyone thinks the economy is up up and away. Recession 2005 nearly guaranteed now IMO.

Someone on my board also posed this theory: Roach was challenging Greenspan to put up or shut up. That is, stop talking about how great the recovery is, jobs will be, threat of deflation over, etc, and put your money where your mouth is: raise rates or shut up.

I thought that was plausible until he reiterested a call for hikes today. My guess is that he thinks the bubbles will get bigger if they are not pricked now, but for some reason can not see that it would cause instant recession if a sudden hike occurred. (2 point hike would cause instant DEPRESSION imo).

Perhaps he is angry at Greenspan for letting this happen again when it was preventable (a second time), and is just not thinking clearly on the ramifications of popping it right now.

That last senstense is my best guess now as to what is really up with Roach.

Mish



To: NOW who wrote (1327)3/5/2004 5:13:40 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
<<I feel the remedy would bring it on but Roach seems to beleive we are not past eh point of no return.>>

I think Roach is basically being optimistic here. The thinking is "well, if we're NOT at the point of no return and we do it, we can still save it. If we're already past the point of no return, then it doesn't matter, 'cause we're going over the falls anyway...."

Woulda worked for sure in 1998, though....<NFG>


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