Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (9506)	3/5/2004 5:25:07 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

BOJ came in with $15B not $5B! No one wants the US$ to rise. No greenspan, not europe, not anyone. Furthermore, why should it rise? It should fall to pieces. I do not think that takes away from my argument. I do not think currencies or treasuries can be manipulated over the long haul. M

To: russwinter who wrote (9506)	3/5/2004 10:36:26 PM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"...the 'market' really didn't tell me much of anything today, other than being massively distorted." I agree with this point. In fact, I think the degree of distortion is more important than we generally realize. Take traditional measures of a stock market --- PEs, price to book, yield -- and take less popular numbers like the VIX and put/ call ratios, and so on and on. Many of these measures are at levels that have lights blinking, needles into the danger zone, and warning signals going off, yet the market continues along happily on its way. Why? Because of the massive distortions . A PE ratio when the Japanese are buying our money at the rate of 90 billions dollars in two months (or whatever it was), and a PE ratio when the Japanese are not buying at all, is NOT THE SAME THING. I am making a very obvious point but it seems to me a good idea to keep in mind the implications of the obvious point: we can't have as much confidence in any of the numbers that come across the transom --- except your blow off prices. When somebody pays 1.30 for a pound of copper, when a few months ago they paid 70 cents --- that's real information.