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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Roebear who wrote (1430)3/7/2004 1:31:30 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Thanks Roebear - pass the word
Mish



To: Roebear who wrote (1430)3/7/2004 1:32:41 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Caddman on the fool talks about the following commodities article
321gold.com

From Caddman...
Looking longer term, CRB is breaking out of long term resistance. What we keep forgeting is that while the US is the largest user of commodities per capita, China and India are beginning are the areas of growth. Even if living standards rise more slowly than current growth, the demands of 2.3 BILLION people are almost difficult to understand.

For example...TV's. If China can get 10% more of its population to purchase a TV...37 Million units. Meat, 10% more, about 10lbs more person, translates to 13BILLION lbs of NEW meat demand.

China slowing their economy, and assuming India slows as well, I just do not see a DECREASE in demand for commodities, just slower growth. With the size of those two populations, demand pressure exisits for commodities.

Don't forget oil. Chinese, per capita only use 1/10 of the oil/energy equivalent the US population does. They only have to increase the standard of living to 1/3 of the US standard to match the US in oil/energy consumption. This is not counting India, who recently became the 6th largest importer of oil, surpassing France.

caddman