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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ilaine who wrote (47095)3/7/2004 3:03:42 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
One element of Great DepressionI have heard was that some New Yok banks tried to squeze some competitive banks, and pushed them under...causing a reaciton which spread bank failure.



To: Ilaine who wrote (47095)3/7/2004 11:32:37 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
>>There was a weird, flukey, inexplicably sharp decline in consumption which occurred in the middle of 1930 that nobody can quite figure out.<<

CB, you are making my point exactly.

When looking at the immigration data from the early part of the 20th Century, you must look at with a 15 year lag. The reason for this is that immigrants were, on average, 30 years old and that peak consumer spending for US citizens occurred than at age 45 (peak spending now occurs, on average, at age 47).

So...There was a weird, flukey, inexplicably sharp decline in consumption which occurred in the middle of 1930 that...was caused by the weird, flukey but entirely explicable precipitous drop in immigration that occurred in 1914.



To: Ilaine who wrote (47095)3/7/2004 1:03:11 PM
From: George Dawson  Respond to of 74559
 
I also appreciate you posting the Romer article. I think it provides a good historical context.

The question it brought to mind for me was whether there were any U.S. government issued securities back then and how they fared. There was definitely public debt - initially about $16B that doubled over the next decade.

I was not able to find anything securities issued on the U.S. Treasury web site.