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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (47110)	3/7/2004 3:14:08 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 74559

...qualitative...quantitative... Jay is in the catbird's seat watching a very quantitative phenomenon: the integration of China into the global economy. China is ten times the size of Japan. India is joining in too. When Japan joined the global economy some thirty or so years ago, it had a measurable effect. The US never again run a trade surplus, for example. China (and to a lesser extend India) are today where Japan was then. We are only just starting to experience the effects from looming worldwide shortages in almost every commodity you can think of, to almost 3 years in US economic recovery with no job gains. I think Asia's integration into the world economy will have far more serious (and unpredictable) consequences than US demographics. And it's happening right now. I also think that many boomers will have to work considerably past nominal retirement age, so I doubt there will be any shortage of labor in the US in the foreseeable future.