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To: mishedlo who wrote (9631)	3/7/2004 2:29:08 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

A point to be made on 5 (as it pertains to manufacturing outsourcing). I've been following Ethan Allen (the furniture maker) as a short sale candidate. They now manufacture about a third of their product in China. The lead times for delivery have been getting longer and longer, mostly up to now because of bottlenecked and expensive shipping. Add input goods shortages, and you can see the problem. Customers are getting POed, you can see some of them whining, "where's my friggin furniture?", and "last time I buy from these a holes", over on the ETH Yahoo board. In the last CC call, the CEO did suggest that they were "carefully considering" their outsourcing, seemingly suggesting they were now on hold, "comfortable with their US base". That was a month and half ago, it's gotten worse. But, on the services, call center stuff, even engineering and product work, where all you have to do is hook someone up to a phone or computer to work, outsourcing will now quickly gut the labor forces of whole American industries.

To: mishedlo who wrote (9631)	3/7/2004 9:34:15 PM
From: t4texas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

long before 5.1 could happen, china and india will start innovating new technologies from the incremental stuff they have either learned on the job there or from stuff their fellow countrymen have learned in north america or europe and shipped off to india or china for further development. lots of usa innovations in the 1880s to 1910s happened as the usa borrowed and developed european technologies for the usa's own huge infrastructure needs. i don't think india and china will be any different. heck china has already started trying to define its own special specs for some wireless stuff that is different from the rest of the world. whether it has been noticed or not china already has its own 3G wireless standard, TD-SCDMA, blessed by the world standards body (since about 2000). even though no other countries plan to deploy the td-scdma standard in Their countries (yet), china will keep working with siemens (and eventually others -- i predict) to bring this technology to market in at least china. it won't even take larry kudlow 2 seconds of "penetrating thought" to figure out what 3G technology will prevail in china, the world's largest wireless market. i will tell kudlow (and cramer) the answer right now -- it will be td-scdma -- and they won't even have to pay qcom royalties for the technology. everyone hates the bush get-us-to-mars trial ballon, but after i thought about it for a few days, i concluded this could be a credible (although long term and expensive) way for all-types-of-usa engineers to create, innovate, and produce stuff that will be useful and out of the clutches of usa managements who are presently just looking for ways to stay cost competitive in research, development, production, on-the-telephone-or-internet customer service.