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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (39003)	3/7/2004 2:58:50 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

A couple of more articles on Iraq. First A tiger by its tail, but how to let go of it? Musa Keilani Jordan Times, Sunday, March 7, 2004 THE CRISIS that has hit the finalisation of an interim constitution for Iraq has only highlighted the ethnic and religious divisions of that country and reflects the tough job the US has undertaken. Obviously, those who orchestrated the war that toppled the Saddam regime did not take into consideration the reality that holding together Iraq as a country was the biggest challenge that faced them; it was indeed Saddam's brutal approach and suppression that kept it so under his reign. That is history now. Today, the majority Shiites are demanding a share of the power proportionate to their number in the Iraqi population. They upped the ante on Friday by raising a new demand — the presidency of the country. They also wanted to nullify a provision that gave the Kurds veto power over a permanent constitution to be drafted next year. Both demands are deemed unacceptable by others, in view of their fear that they would be totally overshadowed by the Shiites. The US is caught in the middle; it could not endorse the Shiite demands nor could it alienate the Shiites. Washington has to keep the Sunnis pacified over their fear that they would be victimised the way the Shiites were during the Saddam reign. However, it might find it difficult to find a compromise. Most importantly, it is the long-awaited opportunity for the Shiites to exert their rightful share of power in Iraq, and they are unlikely to make any compromise. Beyond that, however, is the Shiites' effort to impose their will on the rest of the people of Iraq, including those who are secular. That came forth when the Shiite Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq insisted that religious leaders should have ultimate control over marriage and divorce; it took three days of intense negotiation to settle the dispute and prepare the final draft of the interim constitution that was to be signed on Friday. The Sunnis have their own fears, and the Kurds are entertaining hopes of setting up an independent state. Hence, they would not commit themselves to any binding agreement that would preempt the realisation of their hopes. It is difficult to see a realistic way out. Temporary solutions would not work, simply because the various Iraqi factions do not trust each other; the level of confidence between the US and the various factions is not at a level that would allow Washington to have its way with any of them except those who are on the American payroll or those who have little to lose whatever way the cookie crumbles. Kurdish and Sunni leaders have already warned that Shiites have stalled Iraq's political process and that their actions had been damaging to the future of the country. In the north, the Kurds obviously feel that they would be better without being part of Iraq, and is only a matter of time before they advance their dream for independence. It is only apprehension over Turkish response to any move to set up an independent Kurdish state that is holding the Kurds back. Obviously, the US does not want a Turkish-Kurdish flare-up either. The US might be doing itself a favour if it were to recall Iraq's earlier experiment in parliamentary democracy, following the overthrow of the country's constitutional monarchy in 1958. Then, like today, it was the same communal tensions that aborted the process; it would not be an exaggeration to say that the elements at play have not changed and the same mistrust and lack of confidence, coupled with a new yearning for power, are behind the crisis today. The US did not give much attention to repeated prewar warnings of Arab leaders that it would be stepping into a quagmire that could lead to the splitting of Iraq, an action that does not bode well for anyone in the region (except, perhaps, Israel). Today, Washington does have a tiger by its tail and it beats imagination to see how it could escape from the crisis while it keeps its status as the world's sole superpower that could decide the fate of mankind. aljazeerah.info lurqer