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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (47122)	3/7/2004 8:07:59 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

<<d) an ocean of consumer demand>> will soon vaporize, due to balance sheet and financial planning prudence considerations; and sooner than 10 years, much sooner.>> YES <<Corporate <<b) productivity>> may increase more, if the electorates allow them to continuing doing so, but will soon be needed to service increased corporate debt (unlike Greensputin's chant, balance sheet repair has not happened except for the companies that disappeared), and if so, consumers will have even less to spend on things they might not need.>> No. Productivity -in the US and Europe- is going to shoot up!!! And shot up real good! Here is why: Once CEO's get a taste of the productivity delicacy, they want more and more! Because for the first time it is shown that's possibile. They've never seen it. Only promised to them. Productivity was ellusive, no wehere to be seen despite the mega investment in IT have never been shown. Now it can be seen. <<c) monetary rocket fuel>> is doing wonders for China and India, and I feel, for America's sake, and therefore, as of this moment, the world's sake, that the tap be restricted a bit, because we, as in the world, is heading for a hard smack against the cliff.>> If <<c)>> means kicking in the Guitar to print money, then I agree. But if AC Flyer means spread capital more even, then, it surely can make the "return to the natural size" smooth and less paiful. But as per AC Flyer's US script: get ready to 8% jobless rate. The US is going European.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (47122)	3/8/2004 4:09:56 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Secular failure of demand ? Where ? Japan - can only go up China and rest of Asia - going up Australia & Canada other resource countires (Russia) - going up Europe - can't go down much more unless they are REALLY stupid. LATAM - resource sales positive, financing risk - That leaves the USA.... Government spending is drivng demand, and interest rates will remain low until there is job growth to drive consumer spending. Stock market is up and housing prices in many places are rising, providing more equity. IS this a delicate situation that will likely end badly ? You bet ! But inflation is on it's way to provide a soft landing for debtors (and creditors). More importantly, world economic growth will NOT be solely dependent on US consumption & growth - not with China, Japan, rest of Asia, resource countries, and a modest turn up in Europe. IN 2002, a fall in US consumption would have been very bad. Today , not the end of the world, jsut a decline in commodity prices....