You'll like this. hehe:Florida voters leaning toward Kerry
miami.com
A poll shows that a plurality of Florida voters disapprove of President Bush's performance on the economy and the war in Iraq, while his Democratic opponent is stronger with crucial swing voters.
BY PETER WALLSTEN AND LESLEY CLARK
pwallsten@herald.com
Increasingly critical of President Bush on his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, more Florida voters now say they plan to support Democrat John Kerry than to help reelect the president, according to a new poll.
The Herald/St. Petersburg Times survey reveals striking vulnerabilities for Bush among key independent voters in the state that narrowly put him into the White House four years ago.
More Florida voters disapprove of his job performance than approve, another sign of the president's lagging popularity since the 2001 terrorist attacks transformed Bush from a polarizing figure into a popular wartime president.
A majority of voters believe that the United States is ''moving in the wrong direction'' under Bush -- a marked reversal from two years ago, when 7 in 10 voters, including half of Democrats, approved of Bush's job performance.
MAJOR TURNAROUND
While Kerry secured the nomination only days ago, he holds a 49 to 43 percent lead over a president who just four months ago led every potential Democratic challenger by as many as 18 percentage points.
Still, the results could merely reflect a high point for Kerry, coming after weeks of positive publicity associated with his string of primary victories and just as Bush begins a massive TV ad campaign in Florida and other battleground states specifically aimed at bolstering his image on the economy and security.
In a worrisome sign for Democrats, consumer advocate Ralph Nader continues to win enough support -- 3 percent -- to swing the election, as many believe he did in 2000 by winning 90,000 votes in Florida.
''This poll clearly demonstrates that the state which gave us drama and nail-biting in 2000 may prove no different in 2004,'' said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, who conducted the survey for the two newspapers with Democratic pollster Rob Schroth.
PROPITIOUS TIMING
The survey of 800 registered voters was conducted March 3-4, beginning the day Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina dropped out of the race and just after Kerry sealed his party's nomination early enough to avoid a bloody primary battle.
The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
Most alarming to the White House is likely to be the president's eroding approval ratings on the very issues that he plans to make hallmarks of his reelection and that typically favor Republicans.
More than half of Florida voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, while only 46 percent approve of his leadership on Iraq.
Despite the GOP's attempt to woo seniors by pushing legislation to curb the rising cost of prescription drugs, voters overwhelmingly trust Kerry more than Bush to protect Social Security and Medicare benefits.
The Florida results reflect national polls that have shown Kerry leading Bush by as many as 10 percentage points, a striking contrast to Bush's rising numbers after the United States captured former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in December.
DEMOCRATS DISPLEASED
Bush has come under fire from Democrats for what they say is misleading information justifying the invasion of Iraq, a rising death toll of U.S. soldiers, mounting job losses across the country, tax cuts that benefit primarily the wealthy and a burgeoning deficit that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned last week could imperil Social Security.
''I think this president is too much of a cowboy,'' said Diane Chisholm, 60, a Naples retiree and registered Republican who backed Bush in 2000 and responded to the poll questions.
''I know he can't create jobs, but he can create an atmosphere that creates jobs, and that hasn't happened,'' Chisholm said. ``He's given us tons of promises, but he hasn't delivered.''
The survey reveals that Florida is again evenly divided, with just 5 percent undecided, and that the race in the state will come down to the mood of independent swing voters in Central Florida and the ability of each side to excite its core voters.
KEY BATTLEGROUND
Both sides have pledged to make Florida a key battleground, spending millions on advertising and voter mobilization. Kerry and his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, are scheduled to campaign in South Florida on Monday, the eve of the state's now meaningless primary.
While some strategists argue that Kerry's chances of winning Florida's 27 electoral votes would be helped if he names the state's retiring senior senator, Bob Graham, as his running mate, the poll suggests that Graham offers no particular benefit.
A Kerry-Graham ticket leads Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 49 to 44 percent, the same margin as a Kerry-Edwards team. A ticket that includes Florida's junior senator, Bill Nelson, leads Bush-Cheney by only 2 percentage points.
Not all is gloomy for the president.
HISPANIC BACKERS
Despite at least one survey last week showing concerns among some Cuban-American voters about Bush's approach to Cuba policy, that survey and the Herald/St. Petersburg Times poll show Bush winning the solid backing of Florida's influential Hispanic bloc.
Among Hispanics, Bush leads Kerry 56 to 40 percent. The Bush number includes not only the typically GOP-voting Cuban Americans, but also traditionally Democratic non-Cubans who backed Al Gore in 2000.
Bush strategists can also take solace from the fact that more than 6 in 10 voters do not think his lack of service in the Vietnam War is a legitimate political issue and that most respondents are satisfied with Bush's handling of the crisis in Haiti, two points on which Democrats have attacked him.
At the same time, Bush could be helped by the continued popularity of his younger brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who manages to retain relatively high marks despite controversial stances.
''George W. Bush would do well to associate himself with his brother,'' Conway said.
GENDER DIFFERENCE
Bush also retains strong support from white men, further suggesting that he is popular with his base and pointing to a ''gender gap'' that will frame the race.
Bush wins 52 percent of men, while Kerry gets 57 percent of women.
Bush has ''done a great job with the most important issue,'' said Joshua Smith, 29, a student in Jacksonville. ``He kept his promise. He was going to go after the terrorists, and he has.''
There are signs that Kerry is strong in his own base.
More than 8 in 10 Florida Democrats say they would vote for the Massachusetts senator, while 77 percent of Republicans plan to back Bush.
Those numbers suggest a return to the 2000 political landscape in Florida, which left Bush narrowly victorious after a monthlong recount battle and Democrats angry.
''Florida Democrats remain militant from the 2000 election,'' Schroth said.
Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran who has emphasized his military credentials to court centrist voters and shed the liberal label, also performs well among independent voters -- a primary reason for his lead over the president, the pollsters said.
Fifty-seven percent of independents back Kerry, compared with a little more than one in three for Bush. |
