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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (1460)	3/7/2004 10:00:01 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Talking about REITs, I checked the financials for AIV (large residential REIT). They are struggling with higher vacancy rates, but with an aggressive marketing program (rebates + lower rents), they have their occupancy above 91%. In their outlook section for 2004, they are projecting occupancy between 90.0% and 90.5% for the first quarter! The document was written Feb 12, 2004 (half way through the first quarter). This means they are seeing even more erosion in their tenant base. For my earlier posts, this means the housing overcapacity is continuing unabated and probably accelerating! By the end of 2004, AIV sees occupancy between 91% and 93%. I think we could call those "faith based" estimates <g>.