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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2047)	3/8/2004 12:53:48 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60929

Not on Frank's comment specifically. Frank does what Frank does. I do have a comment in general and I will try to be careful with my words. There are a variety of posters that come here, ST, IT and LT investers/traders call us what you will. Nobody is truly longterm during these times. It just isn't in the equation. I respect all the styles, as many have the ability to put forth a good return. I enjoy reading the material of those from all these bents, as long as they respect those of another style. In particular there are a few posters that have come here of recent have a really interesting style, dealing with lots of leverage, regularly. If they get it right, their effort gets nicely rewarded, quickly. In a way seems to be the ultimate, but the key is one has to consistently get it right or it isn't going to work. The bull run in pm's is particularly interesting as well, at least in my opinion. There has and continues to be posters that are bearish and refuse to admit pm's are in a bull (after 3 yrs), OR at each correction turn ultra bearish. Some of these make comments about those that don't share their views, and label them in such a way to view them as lowest of the low on the investor totem pole. They often call them names and almost without question state they, the ones that trade less, are going to get wiped out. I would suppose then they feel that the money these folks have made until now is by none other than dumbass luck. Some but maybe not all of these folks/posters who I am referring to have obviously only skalped a few pennies off the HUI, from the bottom. Some maybe none. I don't often if ever quote my portfolio performance, nor do I post all my trades. I will just say my buy in on the HUI is probably down in the 35/40 or area, even though I started buying at about 55. This is in less than 3 years. I have not over that time frame invested my complete portfolio in pm's. This last run I have been pretty heavy. I pm with others, and I can say a lot of posters who have been consistently more bullish than bearish have probably done similarly. A few who trade very regularly and from the point of view that pm's are in a bull have done very well too. These latter don't get all bearish during a correction, they view it as a course of events, and concentrate on nailing the lows, preparing themselves for the next leg up. The look forward, not negatively so. So ... what is my point ... and what am I trying to say. Maybe one thing is that I look for certain bearish posters, not to name names, and when I see their bearish predictions it increases my comfort level, or tells me maybe I better consider increasing my pm weightings. Maybe another is that until this run is obviously not a bull run, it is. Until then, and/or until it gets further along, I am not going to get overly cute, just try and watch my backside a tad. Corrections will come and corrections will go until a big top. I may also trade and rotate a little more than I lead on. Shortly after the second top at the first of the year for example I was probably only a little over 50% in, my lowest since the May 02 top where I went to near zero. I might add there is one in particular who likes to make a lot of noise, about a lot of things. May not be who you think, but this person has consistently pegged gold wrong. About 5 weeks ago he was predicting HUI 186. I saved his post. We're still waiting. I never will forget all the bull on SDII about this time last year. Slider .. the great Slider and the others (Slide I kind of miss) ... One of the last posts I read of Slide's was an EW reference he posted. The 5th was in and the HUI was heading back the whatever .. below 100 as I recall. Now how great was Slider? 150 or whatever was the top. About the time I took a powder I recognized something was wrong with Slide's EW, and his and all the other's bearish nonsense. In short they had all turned into the perfect contrarian indicators. I finished loading out at the bottom, and went close to 100%. We all at times become contrarian indicators, whether we like to admit it or not. Some of us more regular than others. Not a pleasant thought, but one I believe to be true. Hope this isn't out of order and I'm not going to touch it again for a long time.