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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (9747)	3/8/2004 7:05:54 PM
From: rubed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Well I have a question then: When we get the PPI numbers (and I am assuming they show a hefty increase no matter how they skew them), does gold take off because the market assumes AG will have to leave rates low, or does it get hammered because the market assumes AG will have to hike? Opinions appreciated. rube

To: russwinter who wrote (9747)	3/8/2004 8:42:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I repeat, credit is expanding 7.4 times the rate of wages and salaries. Credit growth is the the tiger in the tank fueling inflation, not jobs. And I repeat you are dead WRONG! This is our biggest disagreement. Let me try another approach. If people are out of jobs will they have any money to buy cars? buy houses? buy ANYTHING? Can they get any loans without a job? Once they stop paying credit card debt can they go on charging? Can they even refinance their house to draw money out? Greenspan can print all he wants but if banks will not lend it.... And I do not think they will .... not to people with ZERO income then the whole ponnzi scheme blows up. Perhaps credit is escalating at a parabolic rate BECAUSE people are out of jobs. Well once the stit hits the fan there WILL be a tipping point of NO MORE CREDIT and that will be because NO ONE HAS A JOB TO PAY IT BACK, not because interest rates are higher. This is so frigging logical I simply am amazed that you do not see it. The ONLY hope for this ponzi scheme is lower and LOWER rates. At some point it JUST WILL NOT MATTER, and I think we are VERY CLOSE. Jobs are 100% paramount. THE most important thing. Hands down. No doubt about it. Mish