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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (125804)	3/9/2004 12:34:33 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi twfowler; Re: "I think it will eventually pass the US in gross production but there's a chance it may never pass the US in per capita wealth or production, and if it does it will be a long time before it happens." This is the kind of thing people once said about Japan. When Japan industrialized, it changed the face of world trade. China is 10x bigger than Japan, so its industrialization will change the face of the world 10x more. A lot of American workers saw their fly to Japan. The effect of China will be far greater. It's not even comparable. What's more, the industrialization of Japan was limited by far greater raw material restrictions than China faces. As I mentioned before, China is a mountainous country, and their mountains are storehouses for mineral resources. Re: "Also I think if/when it happens China will likely enough be democratic or at least semi-democratic." I doubt that this is true, but even if it is, the obvious lessons from our recent adventure in Iraq is that there is no reason to believe that a democratic China will be at all friendly to the US. Germany and France had much greater historic, diplomatic, ethnic and religious ties to the US, but still they were in opposition to us. It was only our overwhelming force that allowed us to have our way (to our cost). -- Carl