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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quote 007 who wrote (51138)	3/8/2004 10:51:36 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

My reading of the market at this point matches fairly closely with what I've heard from many others. I don't see an imminent decline of any great magnitude, nor do I see a breakout of any significance (everybody seems to agree, now doesn't that frighten you?). At this point I still advocate buying the dips (my egg-on-face misreading of one chart a couple of days ago would have advocated not buying the dips). I think that selling short, except on selected issues (CAL is a candidate), is not yet safe. My bullish percent reading is in the neighborhood of 14% (the numbers are crunching as I type), and when this number is 20% or higher we almost always break resistance. At 10% or lower we are more likely to fail at resistance. Bullish percent peaks are still higher than bearish percent peaks, which usually means that it's safe to buy the dips. But the bearish divergence of which I wrote in an earlier post is due to a series of lower bullish percent peaks. Lower bull% peaks that occur when the indices are hitting against resistance is a sign of some weakness, or rather a sign of less strength, if one can consider those terms to have a different meaning. My weekly stochastic-like oscillator shows oversold on many indices, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce in the next few days followed by another dip that puts some fear into the market. But I view this oversold state as a positive. My VIX analysis calls for a decline here, of several days (I need to look at this more carefully, but cannot do so while the numbers are crunching). When my bullish percent readings are less extreme (that would be when both bull and bear % are under 10%) then my VIX indicator becomes the dominant factor. I hope that I minced words sufficiently well to thoroughly confuse you. :-)