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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13820)	3/8/2004 10:56:53 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95413

Hi G, No I can not rule it out. Do I think it has a higher probability than an expansion on a broad front of many products building demand for Capex in 05 - NO!! Let me clearly state "That I have been wrong regarding SCE stocks before, holding their spectacular percentage gains from what I felt to be truly scary bottoms. I was wrong in September of 01 and again (twice actually, I was wrong in 02-July and October).All three times I thought the bottom had been severe and long enough to warrant a longer less volatile sideways consolidation. All the way through out this period I've been living cheap, saving paychecks and accumulating. Never has the top been frothy enough or long enough in time duration or sector rotation to match what I felt was a distribution top. I believe that cycles build to a final top. In between each cycle,shakeouts occur - manipulations of price which is intended to scare owners of recent purchases to bail at a loss. Never have I seen a top not go sideways and rotate into even the weakest of sectors i.e .coms with out earnings and only an MBA writing a business model plan-like in 00. I invest in only companies with no debt ,large assets and big margins when their business cycle peaks. I like cycles that peak frequently - just in case I miss the top - I can bail out on the next cycle. The 99 -00 peak was a once in a generation top and therefore it will take lnger than I thought to build ownership into strong hands- AFTER THE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION. I think this time we're seeing consolidation building.I don't think we'll see new lows. In a long term perspective - IF we GET CONSOLIDATION HERE - we have started a higher high and a higher low LONG TREND upward sloping trendline.This is far from a sell signal. A year ago we were fearing the "noise" of a double dip - and I nutted it up through out that period of fear and noise. I find it unbelievable that longer term investors would sell out now - fearing this same old H.S. when companies are giving us FINALLY GOOD forward visions. Intc, TI, to name just two 800 pound gorillas in as many weeks. Think back - last year, we would've given organs for that kind of mid quarter updates. After enduring the last 3 years, and businesses are saying - it's coming back and investment is happening again - I'm supposed to sell cause some guru who missed the bottom wants my stock on the cheap - AIN"T GONNA HAPPEN. I've lived thru tops and this wasn't one of them - it may be a failed Rally ,as in 1998-but I can wait for 1999 and 2000- they came quick enough. I must admit that as time goes on,Cary's time scedule - which I doubted and in fact disputed is becoming more and more brilliant. Our favorite stocks have been crushed by the worst bear market in history.The public is receiving hundreds of billions in tax breaks - the interest rates are at 45 year lows and we're just rebounding in investment for the first 3-4 months.The guru's are calling it a top and they missed 2000. There comes a time where you just must simply " Know what you know". Everyone is deliberating on the slow to develope unemployment rate - well it also is the lowest unemployment rate ever to be associated with a recession.The recession has been the slightest in history as well. It is not a surprise to me that our recovery will be anemic - so too was the recession. We in America suffered a slowdown in real estate starting in 2000- Australia,Ireland,England and New Zealand all seemed to just blast off in real estate values-all the way through. Perhaps it is because I'm in Texas, but inflation just isn't here- rel estate or otherwise. UK has increased their interest rate twice in the last year (2) 1/4 increses - in an effort to slow real estate inflation - I don't see it coming. We've got interest rates staying low for the rest of the year.This will maximize profits.This is also the last year of the 9/11 depreciation breaks.As 04 comes to an end - we'll see a huge rush to accelerate the depreciation breaks of investment in capital from all sizes of companies - especially if we're growing all the way into the year end. The tax breaks to the investor class are just beginning to be determined.Lower income people-simplified filers are getting their checks now and Walmart all the way to Saks are bumping their sales numbers from 3-5% to 4-6%. Just wait till June - August hits.It will be election friendly for George. Some may not like that,but you would plan it to peak out right before say September so you could crow a little just before November elections. I think it is in the cards. No one wants to admit that Clinton's surplus was a windfall of stockmarket gains and the tax revenue derived from it.In between we were already into a decline of gains on all fronts. This has been endured,excess capacity has been absorbed by a plethora of new products and if this isn't the full recovery - it is not far off,because we've gone thru the bottom. Look at new lows and highs,McClellan Summation,the business cycle,low rates - they just don't add up to much of a dip and if it is - it will be one I can live thru. Hold with confidence. This is a shakeout that is being structured to scare out holders of stock. This week is the wednesday before option expiration - sell puts tomorrow (out into September - November)and make yourself a payday- or buy great stocks at a below market price at the end of the year. Look how many 300 mm fabs are being planned for 05 - it is just the beginning of another cycle - a weaker one I'm sure.But still just the beginning - if not I'll buy more back when they get cheap. A 100% run is not all these puppies can do after a 3 year bottom with a triple new low price action. This sector is due for a multibagger if not now, then later into tomorrow - the longer it takes the more I'm patiently a believer. BWDIK Bob