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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13822)	3/9/2004 2:35:38 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

TSMC, UMC Feb sales soar over yr-earlier period TAIPEI, March 9 (Reuters) - TSMC and UMC , the world's two largest contract microchip makers, posted on Tuesday sales in February that soared from the year-earlier period, as production lines run at full throttle. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) has said it expects to run at 100 percent capacity in the first quarter as a broad recovery in technology demand swamps the company. ADVERTISEMENT TSMC reported February sales of T$18.38 billion (US$552 million) against T$12.35 billion in the same month last year, rising 49 percent, but dipping from T$19.16 billion in January. TSMC said it would not revise an earlier forecast that saw first-quarter shipments rising by one to five percent from the final three months of 2004, and average selling prices declining by less than 5 percent. The company has hiked its 2004 capital expenditure budget to US$2 billion from $1.2 billion in 2003 as it rushes to install new production lines to meet demand for microchips used in electronics like picture-snapping mobile phones. On Monday, TSMC customer Texas Instruments Inc , the largest maker of chips for cell phones, hiked its first-quarter earnings and revenues targets to the high end of its estimates, reflecting broad product strength. TSMC's biggest rival, United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) also posted strong February sales on Tuesday, showing a 47.6 percent surge from the same month last year to T$8.03 billion. But the world's biggest semiconductor firm, Intel Corp , tightened its quarterly revenue estimate towards the bottom end, saying its core microprocessor business was performing at the low end of historical patterns. TSMC, which is one-fifth owned by the Netherlands' Philips Electronics NV , announced February sales after close of trade in Taipei on Tuesday. The issue lost 0.76 percent, while the TAIEX share index rose 1.05 percent. TSMC shares have largely been rangebound around T$66 since September following a 75 percent surge from market turmoil caused by last year's outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Analysts expect tight capacity at contract microchip makers around the world to keep prices firm, giving a boost to both firms' profit margins. In addition, graphics chip designer Nvidia Corp , which had been TSMC's biggest client, announced last month that it would produce select high-end products at TSMC, returning to its old partner after tapping IBM to produce its top-of-the-line products last year. (US$1 = T$33.3)

To: Gottfried who wrote (13822)	3/9/2004 7:44:22 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Hi G, I'm not touting my Guru status regarding past calls either.ERG I am simply stating my honest interpretaion of what constantly seems to be market noise.This noise most often puts one's emotions down a dangerous path of being 180 off the right long term move. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc50!c200!f][vc60][iUb5!Ul14]&pref=G The RSI doesn't look to me like a distribution top.Since Amat's recent top in November @ 25.94 we've seen failed new highs in January @ 24.75 and 24.00 in February.These failed new highs do not tease new investors to buy.They are more grinding and abrasive.This action to me appears to be more a wearing out, dismaying kind of price action. All along this long term poor price action ,Amat's 200 moving average has been on the increase. Just yesterday both Amat and Intc have hit their 200 day moving averages.These are huge magnets for institutions to jump in and provide buying support.Yesterday's NAZ volume was down most of the day and picked up as the selloff progressed in the afternoon.By the close the Naz volume was up 4%.You don't think brokers would tell customers to sell at the 200 just so they could esily buy up the discount?? DO YOU!! With ADX flatlining and oversold and RSI also very depressed,it is hard for me to think we're at an Abyss about to fall off. It seems to me we've already endured the negative grind since November? My bet is these brokers calling for a selloff out of tech are doing the buying at the 200!This is a classic spot where institutional support MUST come in. When institutional support comes in, it will bolster the price as it marginally violates the 200 line.If it was institutional selling out - believe me we'd see more than a 4% increase in volume over its 50 day (volume) moving average. Heck I've been wrong plenty times before and I could be way off now.It is just counter to my belief in persistence of a long term investor to be selling out here,as we test the 200 ma line with revenues increasing and backlog/Capex picking up for the first time in 3 years. Past cycles have regenerated demand in shorter time periods than 3 years.The over capacity expansion of 99-00 was larger and thus the protracted delay/lag in reinvestment. That being said WiFI's are hot,phones now take pictures,flat panels are now getting cheap,more people buy the more expensive laptops than desk tops and in general our world uses more chips. One thing for sure - equipment still wears out - there is at least a general replacement mode that must be addressed.Not to mention Capex expansion being driven by a wider array of products. IBD has a great article about Advantest - USA.Advantest is the largets global producer of both chip testhandlers and testers.They are on a ficsal years closing the 03 year this March.The CEO says orders are up 97% 03 vs 02 and they will achieve net income growth of 10 in 03(ending this month). They are putting new emphasis on foundry and chip testing.Their president quit this last January - I'm hopeful Cohu has made inroads into what was once their exclusive testhandler territory.The fact that their president quit and they are "beefing up their slaes efforts in foundry and test customers" sounds like Cohu's shipment of Edge testhandlers is getting their attention. I've long speculated that this was Cohu's recent emphasis in their R&D.They own pick and place and for years have aimed at DRAM testing - never to be able to make inroads.Last quarter they shipped a record number of testhandlers at lower than historic margins - I think they are butting into Advantest's normal market. If right it provides a great opportunity - and I'll get off my soap box.GG Buy the 200 upon minor violations - give it at least 3 -4 days of time, and then have a close stop loss. This is a wealth defining moment and it will take courage to prevail. Buy the Dip and Hold with Confidence - this sector's dominance will once again proves itself to be inevitably an exponential growth machine that will build and create wealth. JMHO Bob TI has good vision on cell phone sales and this Thursday (after hours) Oracle announces earnings. Intels #'s where significantly up year over year and price tanked because the mid range of the vision was lowered and yet left the top there. Our unemplyment went up 21,000 people and it wasn't good enough - yet gradual improvement was the underlyingtrend and the market tanked on the "BAD NEWS" of more people finding employment. Ther's a lot of spin out there and if ones not careful it can screw up your thinking. Must be an election year - we're getting very critical of what can only be considered good news - NO?? Thanks for your unbiassed questioniing of my thoughts and the support that give. Bob