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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (33558)	3/9/2004 8:32:29 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793916

The "outsourcing" issue disappears when the monthly job increase comes back. I figure the productivity increase will force hiring by mid-summer. We have an enormous RE "bubble" in Southern California. I was talking to my ex yesterday, and she will be able to sell our place in the next couple of months for about 600K. That is what the comparables have gone to in the neighborhood. It is a 42 year old two story in a mid to lower level neighborhood in OC. This is up 200K in the last year, and it was already overpriced, IMO, last year. This has to burst. I figure next year. The perils of a jobless recovery Financial Times The failure of the US economic recovery, now more than two years old, to produce meaningful job growth has generated much talk about its political consequences. It could undermine President George W. Bush's re-election prospects, and it certainly seems to be contributing to the national alarm about outsourcing, trade and overseas investment. But the bigger concern is that it may be starting to threaten the strength and even the sustainability of the recovery itself. With last Friday's dismal news from the Labour Department that just 21,000 net new jobs were added in February, total non-farm payrolls remain almost 2.5m below their pre-recession peak. For comparison, in the early 1990s at the same stage of the cycle, in what was also called a jobless recovery, non-farm payrolls had already surpassed their previous peak. Other measures of labour market activity are not quite so gloomy and suggest the monthly payrolls survey may be missing some growth in small business and self-employed sectors. But this cannot account for more than a part of the bleak picture; other surveys, as well as anecdotal evidence, suggest the US labour market is indeed unusually grim for a recovery. This weakness is, of course, the reflection of the economy's stellar productivity performance; while US employment has remained at a standstill for the past year, gross domestic product is up by more than 5 per cent. That is good news for long-run economic performance. But, for now, it is starting to look like more of a challenge. If employment does not begin to show strength soon, consumers are likely to retrench, weakening aggregate demand. To avoid that, either productivity growth must, improbably, collapse, or output must accelerate. A more plausible gentle slowdown in output per hour would need to be accompanied by stronger demand and output elsewhere. Though tax rebates may lift household spending in the next few months, there is no further room for fiscal stimulus. Business investment is already rising but, with productivity so strong, the need for new capital outlays is not pressing for most companies. The external sector will help a little, but the dollar's decline is hardly enough on its own. The American consumer has been surprisingly steadfast for the past three years. Figures last week from the Federal Reserve showed why: household net worth reached an all-time high at the end of last year as modest equity increases were augmented again by gains in housing wealth. But even if the Fed stays on hold for the rest of this year - as looks increasingly likely and sensible - it has scant room to provide the stimulus that lowered mortgage rates and helped raise house prices in the past three years. The US has had a jobless expansion for more than two years. It will soon start to test the limits of its durability. Find this article at: news.ft.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (33558)	3/9/2004 8:34:24 AM
From: redfish	Respond to of 793916

Both parties are going to be in attack mode every day for eight months. It's going to be the longest eight months in history.

To: LindyBill who wrote (33558)	3/9/2004 8:45:35 AM
From: DMaA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793916

Yesterday in Florida he accused Bush of stealing the election. Flat out stealing the election. boston.com that major-party presidential candidates did not say the sorts of things about each other that Kerry now says on an hourly basis about Bush.

To: LindyBill who wrote (33558)	3/9/2004 9:08:16 AM
From: DMaA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793916

His wife's even worse - what a disgrace: So Teresa Heinz-Kerry passes out buttons that say “Asses of Evil,” with pictures of Bush, Cheney, Rummy and Ashcroft on them. There you have it: the President of the United States is an Evil Ass. I’d love for someone to put this question to Kerry in the debate: Senator Kerry, your wife handed out buttons that called the President an Evil Ass. Do you believe he is Evil, an Ass, or both? And if I may follow up, I’d like to ask if you can possibly imagine Laura Bush doing that. Thank you. This happened on December 7, a day whose significance was not noted in the blog entry, and the author includes this interesting note: He also spoke about the recent Bush Thanksgiving visit to our military in Iraq, carrying a platter laden down with a fake turkey, smiling for a photo op. I’d love to know if Kerry said it was a fake turkey, or whether that’s the author’s addition. A glimpse into the heart of the faithful followed in the next paragraph: People were hungry for the food we had prepared, but more so, hungry for John’s message of hope. Which goes great with a béarnaise sauce, I hear. Chow down! Look, people, it’s one thing to drink the Kool-Aid, but it’s another to pee it into Dixie Cups and pass it around. I can understand people getting passionate about Howard Dean – when you’re in your 20s and aflame with Justice and Revolution, your cockles are stoked by someone who seems to mirror your own enthusiasm. But Kerry? It reminds me of the cover in ’84 after the Democrat convention: it had a picture of Dukakis, looking confident and secure. The cover said “THE DUKE.” It played right to the emotions of his supporters: we are not entirely unenthusiastic of his candidacy, Reagan is insane, and our guy has a great nickname that makes us feel cool when we say it! Landslide loss. Elections have vibes. I’m not sure what this one is yet, but it doesn’t feel at all like 2000. And it doesn’t feel like 1992. I’ve spent a lot of time recently looking at the newspapers from 92, and you can see how Clinton happened. “Change” was the mantra. He came out of nowhere, as far as the electorate was concerned. He was moderate, charismatic, hip in the way chunky dork-wonks can be when they have a Southern accent and bubba down their voices when it suits them. He was smart, too. He’d spent some time in the wilderness, so he could connect in a way Bush Sr. couldn’t. George Bush 41 had a detached, genteel persona that didn’t play well on Arsenio (remember him?) and he was hammered to translucency by the press towards the end. Reading the press clips, Clinton looked inevitable. I’m not prepared to say that 04 will be 84 or 88, but I do remember watching a debate between Reagan and Mondale. We had gathered to cheer on Walter, the Last Great Hope of Mankind. He promised to raise taxes: we were thrilled, since none of us expected that we’d be the ones paying taxes. At the end of the debate Reagan went into an allegory about a road, and the moderator interrupted him and said his time was up. Reagan never finished the story. We whooped! Everyone will now see what an idiot he is! Landslide win. I hesitate to characterize a movement by the people who comment on blogs, but what the hell. Under the comments by John Kerry on International Women’s Day, a priceless exchange: The years under Bill Clinton were the best this country has seen in 50 years. Yes, the Clintons are the stars of the party. Everyone knows Hillary would run in 08 if the party's nomination is open. So I do think it is a safe bet to say that if Kerry is voted down in 04 then Hillary will be the ticket in 08. I'm willing to bet on that, and I know others who are as well. I will work very hard to convince others to join us. Posted by pragmaticdecider at March 8, 2004 09:21 PM pragmaticdecider is not a pragmatist but a right wing zealot. A bush troll. ‘Nuff said. Posted by hanna for change at March 8, 2004 09:22 PM lileks.com