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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (9794)	3/9/2004 11:16:22 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

As they said Cool Hand Luke, "what we have here, is a failure to communicate." We are black and white on this, Mish, as you (and most others)are about 95% mistaken on what's transpiring here. <As for Japanese intervention, so what?.> I predict BOJ intervention is about $100 billion away (a few weeks at this pace) from destroying the global economy in an inferno of inflation, that's what. They may have done it already.

To: mishedlo who wrote (9794)	3/9/2004 11:35:50 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Reuters Discontented U.S. consumers still shop, for now Tuesday March 9, 11:02 am ET By Kevin Plumberg NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters) - Disappointing jobs growth darkened U.S. consumers' view of the economy in March but it didn't stop them from shopping, reports released on Tuesday showed. Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index fell to 54.5 in March from 56.5 in February, although two separate reports showed healthy gains in retail sales in early March compared with the same time last year. "There's no denying that the bad news on jobs is depressing public optimism," said Terry Jones, associate editor of Investor's Business Daily. Data released on Friday showed the U.S. economy generated only 21,000 jobs in February, way below market expectations of a gain of 125,000. The IBD/TIPP survey, which predicts with 90 percent reliability the closely watched University of Michigan and Conference Board consumer sentiment surveys, also suggested some frustration over government policies. The component measuring confidence in federal economic policies dropped 3.0 points to 47.5, just above its lowest reading of 47.4 under President Bush. This could prove to be an obstacle for U.S. President George W. Bush as he seeks reelection this year. "Those who are more apt to support Bush surprisingly took a dimmer view of the economy ... than his opponents," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. SPRING IS HERE A lack of new jobs did not stop people from taking advantage of mild weather and going shopping, however. Chain store sales for the week to March 6 rose 7.0 percent compared with the same week a year ago, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report, slightly down from the preceding week's 7.9 percent rise. A separate report from the industry research group Redbook showed retail sales were up 5.1 percent in the week ended March 6 compared with a year ago. "Sales slipped a tad for the week but remained strong on a year-over-year basis," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research. Bonds headed lower as investors ignored the news on the economy and focused on profit taking after two sessions of stellar gains following the February payrolls report. Stocks also fell as investors pondered whether share prices have become too expensive after a year-long rally. After February's surprisingly weak employment report, analysts are watching retail sales to see if consumers can shrug off worries over sluggish jobs growth and continue to drive the economy. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Commerce Department on Thursday to report retail sales rose 0.5 percent in February, reversing a decline of 0.3 percent in January. "We believe last week's disappointing payroll employment report simply underscores the need for a continued rise in consumer spending to help stimulate corporate demand for workers, " said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at ABN AMRO Incorporated, in a recent report. My comment: Another dead fish economist who climbed out of a slime pond somewhere. So I'll have to correct him: it's for more Chinese workers and more resources overconsumption in the midst of a Train Wreck. Chain store retailers have been enjoying a steady stream of business since the year began. In February, sales accelerated at a 6.7 percent rate, their best pace in three years, with food and clothing leading the way. ICSC said sales in March could rise 6 percent if current mild weather continues to drive demand for springtime apparel. However, some analysts say sales trends so far reveal how bad market conditions were a year ago, as the country prepared for war in Iraq and the economy searched for a foothold, rather than showing improvement in the current sales environment. As views on the economy continue to worsen due to weak job gains, analysts wonder if that will affect spending patterns. "Better weather and larger tax refunds are fighting with slow growth in jobs and wage income to determine the strength of consumer spending," said Steven Wood, an economist at Insight Economics. "Right now, it's about a tie."