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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (9817)	3/9/2004 4:43:33 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I am less affirmative on copper. I knoww Russ has been waiving. On silver, my observation of open interest leads me to conclude that the open interest is smoothly rising since November (in other words, speculators are recognizing the trend) but without sudden increase in OI as was the case of last December contract and the July-September volatility (Big momo position traders). Leads me to believe that silver is shifting from the "poor man's gold" status to commodity in shortage. For the intermediates, I would like to have price charts of metallurgical coal. IMHO, there is no economic recovery, just a shift in the location of the producers. China as new buyer, rest of the militaro-industrial complex stuck with contracts, hoping every month the next will be better. I fear China has reached the over-investment phase and is now entering the over-production phase. So, I prefer an analysis not depending on the China effect. Silver is a good fit.