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Biotech / Medical : NPSP NPS Pharmaceutical -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (199)3/9/2004 9:26:49 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic  Respond to of 363
 
My take? Well, first I do not follow NPSP that closely. Second, I was following what was discussed here on SI, so this is my thought, more speculations than anything else.

For predialysis, we will need to wait until AMGN complete PIII, file sNDA and hope for approval for this indication. Any rumor and/or street talk does not count much. This is regular procedure and AMGN have to follow.

PREOS? Well, all indicators are that drug is not as carcinogenic as Forteo, but will be completely cleared in label depend on long-term human data, not animal toxicology.

Royalty? 10% on net sale will not make NPSP profitable. Even 20% will not do it. As we all know by now, minimum 50% of the drug economic is worth something in MC.

Today action? Rule 10b5-1 or not, insiders are exercising options (that expire in several years) and selling NOW! Where is their CONFIDENCE????

Miljenko



To: tuck who wrote (199)3/9/2004 9:46:23 PM
From: mopgcw  Respond to of 363
 
Again, I hear, though I can't confirm, that Amgen got an approvable letter for predialysis population but will have to conduct trials.

Piper Jaffray reports that they did get predialysis for both pimary and secondary HPT, there are ongoing studies and they expect approval in lat '04 early '05.

they are forecasting '04 sales of $14mm and '05 of $63mm also due to reimbursement impact.

They also expect the preos data at the end of March.


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