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To: Dale Baker who wrote (8101)3/11/2004 9:01:58 AM
From: Dale Baker  Respond to of 20773
 
"Bush's kickoff commercial wrapped the president in the memory of 9/11. But this association is starting to feel like cheap grace. The families of many of the victims resent it, and it flies in the face of earlier Bush pledges not to play politics with terrorism. Instead of evoking Bush's leadership, the commercial reminds us of Bush's cynicism. After the messy outcome in Iraq and the bungling of nuclear nonproliferation policy, terrorism no longer automatically plays to Bush's advantage.

Locating the GOP convention in New York (out of similar motives) could turn out to be an epic political blunder. Bush shouldn't expect a hero's welcome from New York's first responders, the real heroes of 9/11. Bush walked away from financial commitments to New York; the firefighters union is very pro-Kerry; and Bush is resented by New York's cops and EMT's for his opposition to urban aid and public-sector unions.

Also, Gotham's top three Republicans -- New York Governor George Pataki, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former Mayor Rudy Guiliani -- all favor gay rights.

Gay marriage, supposedly the ultimate wedge issue marginalizing Democrats like Kerry, could well play out against Bush. As civil union (Kerry's position) is fast becoming the national consensus, Bush finds himself marooned with the hard-core bigoted right and alienating moderate swing voters.

So if a real comparison of records and personal achievements doesn't work so well, what do you do? You get really dirty, you have surrogates do the dirty work (remember Kerry's nonexistent affair?), and you hope that the mud so obscures the issues that by November the challenger's advantage on the substance is buried.

This election is about profound differences -- what kind of a country we are becoming, and how to make the world tolerably safe. Let's hope the voters are paying attention."

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