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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: big guy who wrote (2276)3/11/2004 5:19:01 PM
From: Wade  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60923
 
Good luck to your trading. Hope you make a bundle.

Good article of oil consumption. We need to remember the booming consumption of cheap gas in the US has been due to strong dollar in the past. I don't see the same or accelerated oil consumption in the US if USD keep on dropping. The gas price will automatically rise. Smaller and fuel efficient cars will become popular again....and people will drive less mileage if price of gas too expensive. This will be the trend. Citizens of many other nations paying 2 or 3 time of the gas prices, but their economies are booming. I think the gas price in the US is still way too cheap. Most of our cars are way to big for one person to commute to work. I don't think the gas price will come down much from this point on. Yes, I do expect the oil and gas price to go up...not because of shortage in the near term, but because of weak USD. Our life style will change as USD gradually losing its value. When true oil shortage hit us we will know that very quickly. The world will turn up-side-down.

Regarding consumption form China and developing countries, it very depends on the economy of the US. Their growth will slow down if US becomes a poor country. I have no doubt that the world reserve of oil is limited, but I don't feel the sky is falling tomorrow. Our country need to plan the energy policy ahead instead of in a panic mode. I plan to slowly add quality oil stocks on weakness instead of betting on unknowns.

I know it is fun to speculate on these little rockets. I enjoyed my ride with FXEN. I got out between 5-6 which is too early, but I like what I made. I think you will enjoy trading IVAN and HUGO. <VBG>

Have fun. :o)

Wade