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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (9960)	3/11/2004 7:14:27 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

The Ameritrade crowd has been consistently on the NASDAQ buy side throughout January and during this downturn. Since XMAS, they've distributed on only six days. They also used a lot of margin in January. Today, virtually all this buying is underwater, as much as 10-12% (and more for margin buyers), so it has to be getting painful for them, and perhaps some margin calls as well. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G The NASD cracked down on AMTD today for "carrying" customers on settlements, perhaps including margin calls: marketwatch.com When the market broke in 2000-2001, this type of "buy the dip" behavior gradually shifted after about the first 15% decline that stuck for awhile (spring of 2000). First they became less aggressive buyers (after 12%), then they stopped all together (after 15-18%), then they started selling (after 20%), and they sold on balance for months. Mutual funds inflows are slowing, and I think demonstrate the same fundamental pattern. This week's AMG, shows the public still committing some money. If we break by another 5%, I'll bet it goes largely flat. Flows: Mar 10 Independent Data on Fund Flows & Holdings Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $3.3 billion for the week ended March 10 with 59% going to funds investing in Domestic Equities ($1.9 Bil), ; International Equity funds report inflows to all Emerging and Developed regions ($1.3 Bil); Inflows continue to the Real Estate, Healthcare/Biotech, and Financial/Banking sectors; Taxable Bond funds report net cash inflows of $942 million with most going to Corporate Bond funds investing in Investment Grade ($378 Mil) and High Yield ($308 Mil) securities; Money Market funds report inflows totaling $1.7 Bil; Municipal Bond funds report inflows of $18.2 Mil. Speaking of buying at tops, the 3/11 Contrary Investor is entitled "Home is the Heart of the Matter", interesting demographics discussion about who the marginal buyer has been.