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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (1808)	3/11/2004 1:25:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

However, don't you think it is a bit too early to worry about such an implosion, considering that unemployment in the US as at Feb '04 is 5.6%? If you believe that figure then 1) you are truly nuts, or..... 2) have not been reading this board Seriosuly look back for some posts that talk about this. It is closer to 10% easily. and perhaps more. Do you believe govt GDP lies as well? I hope not. Mish

To: zonder who wrote (1808)	3/11/2004 2:15:55 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

wake the hell up unemployment is 5.6% divided by participation rate of 0.67 that comes to 8.5% jobless rate BLS does not measure the jobless rate they measure the rate of citizens collecting jobless benny if someone no longer receives state unemployment insurance, do you ignore that worker? if so, then a moronic view you are consistently narrow minded <"In my humble opinion, that does not suggest an unemployment number that is about to implode, taking the economy with it."> humble? how about BLIND? do you also believe Q3 GDP growth of 8.2% ? when Q3 over Q3 growth was 3.5% please consider frequenting another thread / jim p.s. seen the Japanese Yen chart lately ? hit my 95 target, now backing off !!!

To: zonder who wrote (1808)	3/11/2004 8:23:55 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

<<If for one moment we take our eyes off the "core inflation" number and look at the more widely accepted indicators such as CPI and PPI, we can see that we are nowhere near deflation but in fact going towards inflation.>> PPI? Yawn, it's a relic of the past. In fact, the BLS may not even report it from now on!<G/NG> Trust me, this Fed will not raise rates before the election. Right (HA) or wrong....Mish is absolutely right about that. It would be "politically incorrect" and these weenies have less courage than sea slugs. Paul Volker is DEAD! (Well, not really, but you get my drift.....)

To: zonder who wrote (1808)	3/15/2004 12:39:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

the govt also claims savings rate at 1.5 to 2.0% that includes $800 billion in self-paid rent to homeowners and $300 billion in self-paid credits for checking accounts take them out and you get minus $400 billion in annual savings the nice part of govt statistics is that if you read just the headlines and few followup sentences, you can receive a nice diet of distorted data VERY QUICKLY with little work you sound lazy, accepting govt statistics since most others in your field accept the same at least you are standing on the same level ground as your peers and therefore have gotten most forecasts wrong have a great day / jim