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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (93090)	3/11/2004 3:04:57 PM
From: Long John	Respond to of 209892

Here is a historical perspective on the current decline after a long uptrend. The Dow has been one year without a 6% correction on a closing basis. Over the last 40 years when this happened, either a correction occurred near the end of that year or it didn’t happen for another 6 months. The past corrections have run from 6.5-10% and have taken up to 2 months to complete. As of 3/10, we are one month into the current decline, and the Dow is 4% below its peak close on 2/11. Based on these trends, at a minimum the Dow would fall to 10,000 within the next month. Comparable levels for other indexes would be: SPX 1090 NAZ 1880 NDX 1360 These downside targets are close to the ones that you and others have mentioned. John